Sporadic commentary on the telecoms and IT market in Latvia and the Baltic States.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Mika Sarhimaa on HP's challenges in the Baltics
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Alex Sozonoff of HP discusses Web 2.0
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Tuesday, November 13, 2007
No chance of a Lattelecom deal in 2007
The government is expected to resign on December 5, the same day that beleaguered Prime Minister Aigars Kalvitis has said he will step down. Kalvitis was under pressure to resign because of a number of political scandals and controversies unrelated to telecommunications privatization.
Lattelecom management led by CEO Nils Melngailis had hoped to seal the LVL 300 million deal involving The Blackstone Group as a equity partner by year's end. It now looks like Latvia could be under a caretaker government or facing political turmoil, perhaps including dismissal of the national legislature, the 100-member Saeima, well into 2008.
The political situation along with increasing uncertainly on financial markets around the world increases the liklihood that the Lattelecom MEBO will simply be muddled to death. See my earlier posts.
Tuesday, November 06, 2007
Tele2 open to Lattelecom on its network
Tele2 Latvia's CEO on 3rd quarter results
Lattelecom MBO not on the agenda
Thursday, November 01, 2007
Lattelecom MBO prospects darken
It now looks like the government may disintegrate without deciding, or put off a decision beyond its own rapidly diminishing shelf-life. I was on a very popular TV talk show here with a number of people speaking out on what would be Latvia's largest privatization deal hitherto, including Lattelecom CEO Nils Melngailis and two persons who were actually three government ministers (Ina Gudele as herself, the Special Assignments Minister for E-government and Gaidis Berzins, Minister of Justice and acting Minister of Economics). Ina clearly signaled that she was leaning toward approving the deal, while the two-in one Berzins tilted toward reservations and hesitation. Ina said she had not read the latest government documentation on the MBO and Berzins said it was confidential, but basically dealt with "principles" rather than a yes or no to the current proposal.
Aivars Tabuns, a mildly suborbital sociologist then mocked the confidentiality as if we were addressing a terrorism case, not a business deal and I could largely agree. But then Tabuns insisted that the price of Lattelecom had to be calculated on all the money spent on network investments (more that LVL 500 million) and the market value of all the real estate owned by Lattelecom (as if we were preparing for an asset strip, not a privatization). Peteris Smidre of arch-rival Baltkom, a cable TV and telecommunications group that has clashed with Lattelecom in the past on interconnect and other issues, also said that the only business case he could see at the time is an MBO. Smidre had also indicated his interest in a Lattelecom privatization. In terms of getting a substantial part of the company, were that option open, Baltkom would also have to go to the banks and to private equity, perhaps for a "management buy-in"(if Peteris wanted to exercise some board/managerial control in the deal).
Latvian speakers might be able to watch the show through this link.
A couple of additional considerations have come to my attention:
--The Blackstone Group probably won't wait more than three months, six maximum, for the deal to be approved. Then it will walk away.
--Should the deal fall through, Nils Melngailis will resign as Lattelecom CEO. If it is delayed beyond November 6, Nils will hang on to the bitter end or close to it, but the word is that some of his key staff may be handing in resignations and seeking other work as early as next week if the MBO isn't approved. However, one doesn't know how much job churn there would be anyway.
--according to a valuation of Lattelecom made for the magazine Kapitāls (I write for them as part of my job at LETA) , the company is worth around LVL 300 million as it is now (with a 23 % stake in Latvian Mobile Telephone/LMT), but only around LVL 175 million when the stake is taken out. Although Lattelecom is not traded and all valuations are educated guesses, Nils said on TV that he believed the value of the company had declined somewhat since the MBO proposal was made in the spring.
It looks to me like the muddle scenario is the most likely one. If Nils goes, then I see TeliaSonera getting Lattelecom at the end of a long and rocky road ahead (perhaps a desperately organized public auction in mid-2009) and getting it, probably, on the cheap. This is not the worst case scenario, but neither is it the best. As I think I said on TV, the whole process has been dictated by the government's clear decision not to sell Lattelecom to the Swedes and subsequent refusal (by delay) to do a deal that would have given them 100 % of Lattelecom plus cash for 100 % of LMT ending up in Swedish hands.
Monday, October 22, 2007
Lattelecom future in a muddle
As I wrote in my Latvian language blog, the current proposal for the MBO is threatened by ignorance, muddle(by the government, been at it since 2003 or so on these issues) and hounding (as close a translation of noriešana -- literally, to bark to death). At the moment, it looks like muddle will trump all other cards. However, the hounding has already started (several articles expressing suspicion, questioning the motives of the Blackstone Group, etc.).
One of the strongest critics has been Latvian MEP (member of the European Parliament)Inese Vaidere, allegedly representing right of center nationalist party, but proposing, instead of the MBO, a dirigist arrangement where Lattelecom remains majority owned by the state and is governed by a special law. Vaidere points out that the value of future dividends to the state is, in her opinion, higher than the LVL 300 million that will be paid for the company through the MBO. By this argument, some enterprises should be nationalized to provide revenues for the state instead of paying taxes. Classic socialism.
In a worst case scenario (though not "worst"for those who think a government that finds excuses for firing the head of the anti-corruption agency for minor violations should be dismissed along with the parliament backing it), the Saeima (Latvia's parliament) could be dissolved and new elections called following a referendum on the dissolution. This could drag well into 2008. At present, the government is in disarray, there is no Minister of Economics and even without the president dissolving parliament, the government may yet fall. Deciding the future of Lattelecom is the least of the government's worries.
So what will happen? The muddle will drag on to where the terms of the deal may have to be changed because of unstable financial markets globally and in Latvia (the inevitable crash of the real estate market must come soon). Then the possibly weakened or reshuffled (or caretaker) government will have to decide again. The clamor for a public auction of Lattelecom will increase, but such an event, I believe, will simply lead to it being purchased by TeliaSonera on the open market.
The MBO is not a bad idea, it has been tested with mixed, generally positive results in Europe and the USA, but don't hold your breath that it will go through in Latvia for Lattelecom.
Tuesday, October 09, 2007
A Swedish touch phone - iPhone challenger?
Click To Play
Friday, October 05, 2007
XBox 360 Live -- A nightmare for parents and children
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Sweden's Mondozer to launch widg... err...mondo platform
Monday, October 01, 2007
Tele2 Latvia negotiating a club music service
An informal iPhone demo in Stockholm
Friday, September 28, 2007
A few days in Sweden
An interesting observation -- only women can do a mash-up (literally) of Latvia's three favorite brands -- Nokia, Laima confectionaries, and Hansabanka (Swedish-owned). How? Toss a Nokia phone, a Hansabank credit card and a half-eaten Laima chocolate bar into a ladies handbag and they will all mix and stick together :).
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
More on the Lattelecom shopping list
Triatel, I think I have mentioned earlier. Their wireless EV DO based broadband service is what could be of interest to Lattelecom if the price is set right. Lattelecom needs some weapons in a coming war against both Latvian Mobile Telephone (LMT) and Bite, who will surely move aggressively with higher speed HSDPA as a direct competitor to DSL and the only alternative where the optical/copper infrastructure doesn't reach. Bite has already announced it will boost its HSDPA to 7.2 Mbps and by next year, it will be pushing the envelope of the technology at 14.4 Mbps. LMT is a large boat that turns slowly, but expect them to announce a speed boost as well. Triatel is looking to be bought and Lattelecom has been working with them on "digitizing"the rural network using fixed wireless CDMA phones.
IZZI, the cable TV, internet and mobile services (an MVNO running on the Bite network) company, might be of interest for expanding Lattelecom's cable TV base, although they do not directly use IPTV technology to the home (they use it for backbone transmission of their signals, I think). It would be a way of getting over 100 000 TV customers and slowly switching them to Lattelecom's IPTV. IZZI resells Triatel's wireless internet and provides fixed line cable internet where its network is present. IZZI was owned by TeliaSonera (and known as Telia MultiCom) before being sold to private Latvian investors some years ago. Its name is derived from how East Europeans pronounce the word easy :), suggesting that IZZI is easy to use :).
More along the lines of a cooperation partnership, Lattelecom could also look at the wireless broadband network builder Unistars. It has a strictly business customer base and builds some application-specific networks, for retailers and construction projects. That is, these wireless networks are used primarily for running retailing applications (point of sale networks, retail accounting and inventory control applications, etc.) This is the sort of thing Lattelecom is moving into -- setting up IT solutions that run on mission-critical telecom networks. For some customers, the right solution for Lattelecom might just be to call in Unistars as a partner, in others (farmstead internet, small-town business internet access), Triatel may have the solution. Unistars also has some WiMax know-how and is closely watching the mobile WiMax market. Lattelecom CEO Nils Melngailis and Unistars honcho Aleksander Rutman should talk, if they already haven't.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Lattelecom eyeing Pionit, a stealth IT company?
Bite doubles HSDPA speed in Latvia
My talk with Fred Hrenchuk, the recently appointed CEO of Bite Latvija is here:
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
TeliaSonera on fixed-mobile convergence
One of the things I did do in researching the unwritten longer piece was to send questions to TeliaSonera, since one of the points was that now that Lattelecom was doing an MBO, its most likely full-spectrum competitor would be Latvian Mobile Telephone (LMT), which, when all the privatization deals are finished, will be 100 % owned by the Swedish telecommunications group. Helped by Niklas Henricson, the secretly :) half-Latvian member of the TeliaSonera press team, I did a kind of e-mail interview, which was answered by Anna Augustson, the head of communications for TeliaSonera's Business Area Mobility Services. Here is the e-mail "interview" in full, edited just to remove some explanatory links that Anna added:
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TeliaSonera seems to have internally adopted extensive fixed wireless convergence with many /all of your employees carrying mobile phones that ring when their fixed line is called (via an inhouse wireless?) and apparently switch to the GSM/UMTS network outside the offices. Is this now the emerging/preferred solution for business in
The migration from traditional fixed telephony to mobile and Internet-based services in business and for residential customers is one of the clearest trends in telecommunications right now. Basic services like voice telephony will no doubt increasingly be replace by wireless access, regardless if it is an office environment or out in the streets, in the home etc. And to a large extent, we will see data go the same way as voice and be provided with wireless access.
In
First of all, it should be noted that negotiations regarding our ownership in Lattelecom and LMT are on-going and any comments in this respect would - before an agreement is reached - therefore be purely speculative.
Speed is a constantly moving target: Today we can enjoy access speeds which we could not foresee a couple of years ago. But both wireless and wireline/fixed access speeds are developing simultaneously and we do have a decent gap between the two access technologies.
Since you still own and run a fixed network, what will be its function in an increasingly wireless environment? Will it merely be a "backbone to the home/office" and carry. say, HD TV on demand, telepresence, other services beyond the bandwidth of wireless?
As stated above, wireline will increasingly be focussed on providing the backbone infrastructure, access to radio points and also the really heavy connections to e.g. offices.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Nils Melngailis (Lattelecom) on financing the MBO
FinnFUCKINGair (baggage losers)
I strongly recommend against flying with either of these bozos, except I guess everyone is bozos these days, US air travel being a default clusterfuck, so I suppose one simply has to travel light and carry on anything of value. Fortunately, I also wore my brand new Clark's shoes to break them in.
HP video, upcoming Lattelecom news
On Lattelecom
Later today we will have some preliminary news on the financial consortium financing the management buy-out. Am a little tired after a long trip back to Latvia from the US, (lost baggage, etc) but will try to get some video up on this (in English).
Sunday, September 09, 2007
More on HP and digital entertainment, Post no. 500!
Saturday, September 08, 2007
Todd Bradley of HP speaks about "consumer electronics"
Here is the video. Blogger's video upload did not work on several attempts. It sucks.
Friday, September 07, 2007
Disappointing Apple :(
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
Like college registration in the 1960s :)
Wasted after 8 hours on the plane from Helsinki, but will try to stay up and sleep normally
Friday, August 31, 2007
Lattelecom & wireless broadband, HP in NYC
Another priority is to move into mobile services. In this regard, I have mentioned a number of options, with the most likely one being a virtual operator (MVNO) on the Bite network, where all paying customers are welcome. Another option would be to experiment with mobile WIMAX (something not likely to be viable until the middle of 2008). I have also mentioned that Lattelecom could forge closer ties, perhaps even buy Triatel, which runs a non-standard (for Europe) CDMA mobile phone and data network, plus an EV DO wireless broadband network (satisfactory at my country cottage 35 km outside Riga). Triatel is already cooperating with Lattelecom for installing fixed wireless telephony and landed an EU and government-financed rural broadband project.
After a bit of chatting with sources, it looks like the best fit between Lattelecom and Triatel could be in the wireless broadband space, or so some think. Triatel appears ready to be persuaded into some kind of broader, more permanent deal. The question is, how much infrastructure overlap there may be and is this not at odds with the rather strange rural wireless broadband project backed by the government? The basic idea of that project, rather than helping spread "last mile" solutions (which Triatel is) was to establish parallel wholesale infrastructure and hope that resellers would appear in the poor rural areas and have a choice of wholesalers whose internet connection they could then distribute to the rural farmsteads, huts and hovels in the forest.
Meanwhile, earlier this summer, Lattelecom announced it was buying a bunch of Alcatel point to point high capacity microwave links in order to extend its broadband reach beyond the optical and wire network. That sounds like extending infrastructure to me. Still, the last mile could be set up and sold by Triatel, especially if it was part of the Lattelecom fold. Watch these developments...:)
HP in New York
I'm off to New York on September 4 for some kind of Hewlett-Packard (HP) all day event on September 5. Piecing together some sparse e-mails from the local organizers, it will be a series of break out events on various gadgets and issues. There has not exactly been a flood of information as to what, when (and just some bios of who), but it will held at some posh hotel (the Ritz) on the Battery, far from the delights of the rest of Manhattan. Or so the month old e-mails claim. But hey, I already have my electronic ticket (in French) from HP, so thanks!
Many of the discernable events are of interest, and, hopefully, I will be able to blog and videoblog from there, both here and for my Latvian employer. I notice blogger has added a "add video"function, which means I may be able to bypass the sometime slow(to post uploads) and (therefore) dubious YouTube and the quicker alternative, blip.tv. Anyway, I will give it a test. After that, I will be off to Boston to see family and back in Latvia on September 11
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Soft launch for Baltkom's mobile service
Tariffs on the new service will closely match those offered by Bite and will include mobile internet (HSDPA), which the Bite network offers in Riga and several other Latvian cities.
The new service, which will be part of a Quattro package (cable TV, cable internet, fixed and mobile telephone) or sold seperately, will start without any fanfare, probably as an offer to existing Baltkom customers (there are more the 170 000 cable TV subscribers). Once the services are accepted and proven to work for existing customers, a wider marketing campaign and announcement will be made.
This, according to my source.
Monday, August 20, 2007
Lattelecom, LMT privatization memo finally signed
Thursday, August 16, 2007
Latvian government offers TeliaSonera a privatization memo
The Latvian government has presented a memorandum of undertstanding on the privatization of Latvian Mobile Telephone (LMT) and Lattelecom that it is ready to sign. A spokesman for TeliaSonera said, however, that negotiations were still continuing.
TeliaSonera, which now directly and indirectly controls just over 60 % of LMT would get 100 % control, while Lattelecom will be sold by both shareholders (TeliaSonera 49 %, the government - 51 %) to the management and staff of Lattelecom in a management buy-out. The latter is valued at around LVL 290 million.
More later, time allowing....
Monday, August 13, 2007
Previews of coming attractions--the Lattelecom MBO
September 1 -- the consortium to finance the LVL 290 million deal should be in place and consist of one private equity partner and a small consortium of banks. There will be covenants with the private equity partner limiting the sale of shares and retaining critical strategic and budget decisions in the hands of Lattelecom management,
September 12 -- there might be a formal signing or initialing of the deal to transfer 100 % of Lattelecom to the MBO consortiium while the remaining state shares in Latvian Mobile Telephone (LMT) go to TeliaSonera.
End 2007 -- the deal is closed.
Early 2008 - Lattelecom grants, free of charge, a certain number of shares to every employee, regardless of seniority or position. It also offers a limited number of shares to employees and managers for cash.
2009 -? Lattelecom, based on financial performance, grants options/profit sharing shares to employees and managers. Most staffers have the option to take cash or shares (buy out their options) but many middle and all higher level managers will have a substantial part of their remuneration in share options.
Lattelecom will also start actively looking for corporate acquisitions in the region -- neighboring Estonia and Lithuania, possibly Scandinavia. During 2008, it will have entered the mobile market, most probably as a virtual operator with Bite as its partner.
2010-2012: Look for a share issue and stock exchange listing of Lattelecom once it has shown substantial revenue growth (while sustaining or increasing profitability). The listing will allow some employee-management shareholders to cash in (out?) upon retirement or leaving the company and give all a market-based indicator of the value of their holdings.
Wednesday, August 01, 2007
Tele2 Latvia honcho on Q2 results
Thursday, July 26, 2007
TeliaSonera honcho: it looks like a deal!
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Government waffles again on telecom privatization
Thursday, July 19, 2007
airBaltic offers pre-paid mobile phone services
The service is run for the airline by SIA Telecom Discount, a small alternative Latvian telco. Just how they do it -- whose network is used-- I have still to find out (I want to get this news out ahead of anyone else, as air Baltic hasn't announced this to the press, only put it in a customer newsletter).
Since I don't think I want to get a new mobile number to use just for a weekend in, say Stockholm, mainly because I don't want to SMS like 150+ contacts and get everyone confused, I think this card is mainly aimed at the Latvians in Ireland and UK market. Think about it -- when you let everyone know you are off to O'Leary's mushroom farm, you also announce your airBaltic number and get incoming calls for free.
My sources say that the next step could be the sale of cheap (subsidized) phones by Telecom Discount bundled with the air Baltic card, so that emigrants could have a "call and be called from Latvia" phone when they hit the ground in Ireland or wherever. Sounds like a reasonable business model.
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
Endgame for the half-mother
The delegation will be headed by Kenneth Karlberg, currently head of TeliaSonera's Mobility business area, but formerly (before the switch from regional to services-based organization) in charge of business in the Baltics. For Kenneth, it will be the beginning of the end of a seemingly neverending story that started in 2003, when TeliaSonera first declared its interest in buying all of Lattelecom and Latvian Mobile Telephone (LMT). Now, as a corollary to the Lattelecom MBO, Kenneth will be getting 100 % of LMT. LMT will be integrated into TeliaSonera's regional mobile strategy, but there are some things to learn from the Latvian subsidiary, which was first to launch HSDPA mobile broadband, something even Telia Mobil still doesn't offer (?).
The July 26 meeting, presumably, will be to discuss the choreography of how each partner will waive first refusal rights on the other's holdings in Lattelecom and LMT, as well as on how to divest the 23 % of LMT formally owned by Lattelecom.
At the same time, people from Lazard Freres are busily doing due diligence at Lattelecom so as to present the company to potential financiers of the MBO. CEO Nils Melngailis is in London talking to banks and private equity companies.
Look for Lattelecom to strengthen its senior staff in the next few weeks as the company prepares to become a small independent player, without the backing of its ex-half mother. I will mourn having to discard that favorite bizarre term:).
Wednesday, July 04, 2007
Bite Group honcho speaks
1) Bite Group expects Latvia to be its fast growth, high opportunity market (Lithuania is mature and steady).
2) Bite will try to push the pace of network build-out in Latvia beyond the present 10 base stations/towers per month.
3) In the medium term, there will be more bundled services (XYZ minutes included in the basic fees) and a drift toward flat rate for everything as HSDPA mobile internet and its next generations become ubiquitous.
4) Mid Europa, the private equity company that bought Bite has an investment horizon of five years plus (remember, they are not a telco seeking to permanently have a network presence in Latvia).
My own guess -- no one told me this -- is that Bite is being fattened for a friendly sale to Vodafone in 6 to 8 years. It makes sense and Bite has had a favorable roaming and data roaming deal with Vodafone.
Here is the video, this time from YouTube. BlipTV was OK for a while, it took some longer videos but now screwed up, refusing to open a page where I can copy paste the code for putting a video window on the page, as I have done in some earlier posts.
Tuesday, July 03, 2007
Tele2 to expand 3G/HSDPA coverage in Latvia
Monday, July 02, 2007
A Swedish student networking presentation in Riga
Saturday, June 23, 2007
A happy, safe Midsummer (Jāņi) to all
Friday, June 22, 2007
Vista goes Latvian (in Latvian)
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
Nick Henny on UMG's royalty system, made in Latvia
Here is the video interview:
Monday, June 18, 2007
Microsoft honcho speaks on Dynamics
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Government supports Lattelecom MBO
The MBO will net the government around LVL 290 million.
Lattelecom's management proposed the MBO to break a deadlock in privatization talks between the Latvian state and the Swedish telecommunications group. TeliaSonera initially wanted to buy 100 % in both Lattelecom and Latvian Mobile Telephone(LMT), but the government said last year it would not sell Lattelecom to the Swedes. Valuations were then made of both Lattelecom and LMT in the hopes of a deal where TeliaSonera would swap its 49 % share of Lattelecom plus cash for 100 % of LMT. It currently controls just over 60 % of the mobile operator. That would have left the government holding 100 % of Lattelecom, but the proposed deal stalled.
Unbelievable, but the government --so says my Lattelecom source, this ain't on the wires yet -- has finally made a decision.
TeliaSonera ousts Anders Igel
How does this affect Latvia? First, it gives the government an opportunity to, yet again, procrastinate on any decision to privatise Lattelecom and to finally sell all of Latvian Mobile Telephone (LMT) to TeliaSonera.
The other aspect is not so obviously obvious. TeliaSonera needs a new group CEO, probably an international manager, not necessarily a Swede (for who knows who will own TeliaSonera in a few years), as well as someone familiar with its growing Baltic and former USSR markets.
Perhaps TeliaSonera need look no further than Nils Melngailis, the 40-ish, Latvian-American, internationally-experienced (IBM Business Intelligence, Coopers & Lybrand) CEO of Lattelecom. After all, with the company mired by the government in indecision about who will own it, the role of Melngailis and other talent at Lattelecom is being reduced to uncertain short-term stewardship rather than nimble, strategic management. The management buy-out idea did not come out of nowhere, it was, in one aspect, a pressure tactic to get the government to act.
We may see a miracle and actually get a decision, but more likely, we will get procrastination. So don't ask them to take your name off the short list in Stockholm, Nils (and Stockholm, do look at your own 49 % owned talent).
Monday, June 11, 2007
Lattelecom privatization may be decided June 12
1) To approve the management/staff buy-out proposed by Lattelecom's management and, apparently, having the tacit approval of the half-mother, TeliaSonera.
2) to hold a closed auction (by invitation) to sell Lattelecom to a major international telco (assuming any show up) in the hopes of getting the maximum price.
3) to sell both Lattelecom and Latvian Mobile Telephone (LMT) to TeliaSonera after all, reversing the government's previous position that Lattelecom would never be sold to the Swedes.
Right now, the government is said to favor 2), the closed auction, claiming that the management buy-out (MBO) would contravene Latvian law. Strange, where was that law when the a government commission tentatively approved the MBO idea some weeks ago. One wonders...