A consortium consisting of Swedish telecoms giant Ericsson, internet infrastructure builder Cisco and IBM is bidding to build an IP TV network for Lattelekom, this blogger has learned. In this case, IP TV means delivering DVD quality image and sound over 100 + channels over a DSL type connection at around 20 Mbps.
The ongoing bid also explains the eagerness of IBM's representatives in Latvia to demo what it said was "its" triple-play product. To be sure, the slides had many other company names and the IBM people said they were only "integrators", which is the role assigned them in the three-member consortium. At the same time, the IBM guys did an excellent job of leaving the general feeling that somehow, it was their "show".
The fact that Lattelekom is set to build out an IP TV network is nothing new for the readers of this blog -- what is interesting is that IBM was packaging it as "triple play". That means there is a very low cost, and, in many cases, practically free internationa and domestic voice element in the solution. Indeed, I would call "triple play" more like 2.5 play, because with the heavy duty internet pipe needed for IP TV, one has the capacity for most high quality do-it-yourself VOIP solutions. So the third element is probably going to be a Cisco VOIP phone handset that makes phone-to-phone calling easier, as well as making it possible to charge extra for the equipment and, possibly, minutes on some kinds of calls.
As things look now, Lattelekom has quietly let the "soon after Easter" goal for some kind of experimental IP TV pass and is apparently looking for a serious, heavy-duty pilot level solution that will almost certainly involve the same partners it will keep for the final, commercial roll-out. I don't think it will be that soon -- maybe a Christmas offering?
If I were Lattelekom, I would hit the market with a "shock and awe" offering - voice, interactivity, games, and a hard-disk based set-top box that would allow recording of programs. I would position it so that the middle to higher income end of the draugiem.lv crowd (275 000 18 to 40 year olds who feel at home on the net) would go after it. In fact, I would make part of the launch on draugiem. This is no partiality to draugiem, just that this is one of the largest and most focused attention platforms available in Latvia after TV itself.
The IBM demo, run off a server in the basement with snippets of real programming (I think this is what they were doing) looked impressive, especially the video-on demand features and the ability to package one's own set of subscriber channels (and skip the half-dozen Russian language channels that seem to come with local cable packages, since I don't speak Russian). Interactive features are also part of the solution, so Baltcom TV, which is going digital with its own MMDS or (limited) optical fiber solution should start watching out. So far, Baltcom is the only player offering triple play, but when Lattelekom gears up and starts, Baltcom will face some very serious competition.
However, a caution to all is that despite its high number of cable TV subscribers, Baltcom has relatively few triple-play users (partly due to geographical constraints of their network).
Sunday, April 24, 2005
Friday, April 22, 2005
Wacko stuff on number portability
You take a f**kwit story by the Latvian news agency LETA and you have one of the ingredients for a half-assed news story in a business daily I won't name because I'm not sure what the story is with mildly dissing (as they say in the hood) these folks.
Anyway, LETA triggers a minor newsroom panic by asserting that Latvia's arrangements for number portability means endusers will have to pay for the privilege. Nobody actually says that in the original piece and moreover, nobody actually tells me that either. In fact, they say that as things now stand, people officially know just about f**k all about how things will really look (one of the privileges of blogging is that you can rant, writing the way I might speak to someone about this in an informal manner).
My story started being written that it wasn't so that number portability costs would be passed to customers even if they were incurred by operators. In other words, LETA was writing bullshit. In truth, nobody really knew whether customers might have to pay, but there were strong factors the suggested they probably wouldn't. Putting it so clearly didn't fly on the first try, so the piece was done with a twist that I'm mildly unhappy with. Then again, doesn't mean shit to those who don't read Latvian, and all the better :)...
Unofficially, it looks like the mobiles at least are going for some kind of independent organization to managed the database that knows whose number is where. That means there could be a variety of cost-sharing arrangements. Lattelekom, according to my sources, is pretty close to signing its arrangements with the small number of small fixed line operators that actually have anything going.
One idea that Lattelekom is mulling (and this would apply only to number portability within any of 26 domestic area code zones) is to package the charge for incoming customers (charged by their former operators) as a kind of fee for keeping an old familiar number while at the same time getting better tariffs, higher quality or whatever it was that made the customer want to switch. At the same time, it is also logical that number portability charges, if applied by the operator giving up the customer to the receiving operator, would also be absorbed by the latter simply as a cost of customer aquisition rather than passing it on to the customers.
It is even less likely that the mobiles would pass on charges, as they regularly put up substantial amounts for customer acquisition with such deals as subsidized phones. C'mon, no phone costa LVL 1 or LVL 19 wholesale. The operator is putting up LVL 20 just to get the subscriber signed up for whatever the minimum time is and hoping the revenues will soon make up for the wholesale cost of some mid-range Nokia or Samsung. So why should a number portability charge be passed on to the customer? At best, it will be diluted and hidden. Does anyone buy shoes on sale where the price tag says $75 for the shoes and $4.95 per buyer for the advertising campaign that announced the sale? No, those shoes are "was $ 99.95, now $ 79.95". Basta.
Even if charges were implemented, it doesn't look like people will rush to port their numbers like stampeded lemmings. Lattelekom doesn't see more that 2 % of its subscribers doing so(about 12 000), thought other sources see a double-digit percentage. However, those predicting stampede away from the incumbent (has anyone seen this elsewhere? 50 % was a guesstimate mentioned to me by one source forecasting what could happen to Lattelekom) are logically saying that the unit cost of portability will fall. If Lattelekom spends about LVL 1 million on its number portability platform, "better" to have 60 000 jump ship than 12 000.
One serious issue is whether the Latvian operators will have their act together by the time number portability must be implemented on December 1. That's when the Public Utilities Regulatory Board will start fining operators. The mobiles and Lattelekom say they will be in compliance.
We shall see. Off to Ericsson in the morning.
Anyway, LETA triggers a minor newsroom panic by asserting that Latvia's arrangements for number portability means endusers will have to pay for the privilege. Nobody actually says that in the original piece and moreover, nobody actually tells me that either. In fact, they say that as things now stand, people officially know just about f**k all about how things will really look (one of the privileges of blogging is that you can rant, writing the way I might speak to someone about this in an informal manner).
My story started being written that it wasn't so that number portability costs would be passed to customers even if they were incurred by operators. In other words, LETA was writing bullshit. In truth, nobody really knew whether customers might have to pay, but there were strong factors the suggested they probably wouldn't. Putting it so clearly didn't fly on the first try, so the piece was done with a twist that I'm mildly unhappy with. Then again, doesn't mean shit to those who don't read Latvian, and all the better :)...
Unofficially, it looks like the mobiles at least are going for some kind of independent organization to managed the database that knows whose number is where. That means there could be a variety of cost-sharing arrangements. Lattelekom, according to my sources, is pretty close to signing its arrangements with the small number of small fixed line operators that actually have anything going.
One idea that Lattelekom is mulling (and this would apply only to number portability within any of 26 domestic area code zones) is to package the charge for incoming customers (charged by their former operators) as a kind of fee for keeping an old familiar number while at the same time getting better tariffs, higher quality or whatever it was that made the customer want to switch. At the same time, it is also logical that number portability charges, if applied by the operator giving up the customer to the receiving operator, would also be absorbed by the latter simply as a cost of customer aquisition rather than passing it on to the customers.
It is even less likely that the mobiles would pass on charges, as they regularly put up substantial amounts for customer acquisition with such deals as subsidized phones. C'mon, no phone costa LVL 1 or LVL 19 wholesale. The operator is putting up LVL 20 just to get the subscriber signed up for whatever the minimum time is and hoping the revenues will soon make up for the wholesale cost of some mid-range Nokia or Samsung. So why should a number portability charge be passed on to the customer? At best, it will be diluted and hidden. Does anyone buy shoes on sale where the price tag says $75 for the shoes and $4.95 per buyer for the advertising campaign that announced the sale? No, those shoes are "was $ 99.95, now $ 79.95". Basta.
Even if charges were implemented, it doesn't look like people will rush to port their numbers like stampeded lemmings. Lattelekom doesn't see more that 2 % of its subscribers doing so(about 12 000), thought other sources see a double-digit percentage. However, those predicting stampede away from the incumbent (has anyone seen this elsewhere? 50 % was a guesstimate mentioned to me by one source forecasting what could happen to Lattelekom) are logically saying that the unit cost of portability will fall. If Lattelekom spends about LVL 1 million on its number portability platform, "better" to have 60 000 jump ship than 12 000.
One serious issue is whether the Latvian operators will have their act together by the time number portability must be implemented on December 1. That's when the Public Utilities Regulatory Board will start fining operators. The mobiles and Lattelekom say they will be in compliance.
We shall see. Off to Ericsson in the morning.
Wednesday, April 20, 2005
Blogspamming strikes!:)
I think I just got blogspammed. A creature called lori posted a 20+ lines long comment repeatedly saying that I should be careful buying the drug "Tramadol". Sounds like something from a Kurt Vonnegut novel (Tramadol from Trafalmador). Also "be careful buying penis enlargment pill". Well, thanks for the warning lori, but I deleted your bizarre chant. But now you all know, be careful...etc :).
Were you on Tramadol, lori?
Were you on Tramadol, lori?
Huawei challenging Ericsson for rural fixed wireless
China's Huawei may be a serious challenger to Sweden's Ericsson for implementing fixed wireless services in remote rural areas of Latvia under Lattelekom's plan for finishing the modernization of the last of its Soviet-era network, this blogger has learned.
Both equipment and solution suppliers have been in touch with Lattelekom about building a cdma 450-based fixed wireless voice and data network to reach the 60 000 or so subcribers still linked to analog rural switches and accessing the network through obsolete wire and cable links.
Cost is apparently an issue, since it appears that Huawei and, possibly, another China-based contender have suggested they can do the job significantly cheaper than Ericsson. If this proves true and Lattelekom – an Ericsson customer for some of its main switches and its DSL network upgrade – chooses the lower cost offer, it would be a repeat in miniature of Ericsson's loss to Huawei on a major contract in Thailand. Huawei is reported to have bid 40 % under some benchmark figure set by the Thais.
The idea is to provide both digital voice and high-speed data (probably wireless SDSL) to these subscribers under a LVL 30 million plan adopted by Lattelekom last year to modernize the last, difficult and potentially expensive subscriber lines. In some cases, the subscribers and potential subscribers in isolated rural homesteads could be given apartments in the nearest town for less than the cost of running or upgrading the wireline to their farms or residences. In other words, there is only a wireless solution
With the Latvian government's adoption of a national frequency plan on April 19, the Public Utilities Regulation Board will be able to decide whether and how to allocate part of the 450 Mhz spectrum for rural fixed telephony. Lattelekom has asked to be given some 450 Mhz spectrum for its rural fixed wireless, but the request has gone unanswered for many months. Now it remains to be seen whether the regulator will wait for new rules on the allocation of "scarce" spectrum that could make it possible to auction or charge a less-than-nominal fee for the rest of the 450 Mhz spectrum. If Lattelekom has to bid against others, this may make cost even more of an issue in the rural modernization project.
Ericsson has the advantage of being a known and established supplier to Lattelekom and probably can offer some cost of ownership advantages with its higher price tag. The support base is just across the Baltic, not in China (unless Huawei has built up a permanent Europe-based support organization, which it might have).
However, but cutting the base price low enough, the Chinese supplier can probably outweigh such factors. In any case, a lot of equipment is probably more or less "generic" and increasingly reliable, so barring new hurricane-strength storms, you will not be flying in technicians from Shenzen very often to deal with a malfunctioning cdma450 base station.
Whatever the choice, cdma 450 is the hot new/old (where NMT used to be) 3G grade technology and Lattelekom has few other currently viable choices for finishing up network modernization. WiMax is another, unproven technology and primarily aimed at data/internet markets (possibly IP TV), not voice. Somehow, I don't see some Latvian rural shack dweller installing Windows Media 10 (or whatever it is now) on his PC so he can get HD TV broadcasts over WiMax.
Other background noise
Triatel, Latvia's only cdma 450 wireless, fixed wireless and internet access provider, is moving ahead rather slowly. Uptake of the "non-standard" service is somewhat disappointing. Huawei is said to have seen them as well.
Business customers may be waiting for Latvian Mobile Telephone and Tele2 to move beyond their token UMTS deployments to see what their coverage and pricing look like. Triatel has positioned itself as serving mainly business customers, who will wait to see what the "big two" and possibly Bite GSM have to offer on the UMTS side. Also lacking (except for internet access) are 3G specific content and services. Mobile TV and entertainment (games, tones, video) will lead the way on the consumer side once 3G handsets start selling.
Both equipment and solution suppliers have been in touch with Lattelekom about building a cdma 450-based fixed wireless voice and data network to reach the 60 000 or so subcribers still linked to analog rural switches and accessing the network through obsolete wire and cable links.
Cost is apparently an issue, since it appears that Huawei and, possibly, another China-based contender have suggested they can do the job significantly cheaper than Ericsson. If this proves true and Lattelekom – an Ericsson customer for some of its main switches and its DSL network upgrade – chooses the lower cost offer, it would be a repeat in miniature of Ericsson's loss to Huawei on a major contract in Thailand. Huawei is reported to have bid 40 % under some benchmark figure set by the Thais.
The idea is to provide both digital voice and high-speed data (probably wireless SDSL) to these subscribers under a LVL 30 million plan adopted by Lattelekom last year to modernize the last, difficult and potentially expensive subscriber lines. In some cases, the subscribers and potential subscribers in isolated rural homesteads could be given apartments in the nearest town for less than the cost of running or upgrading the wireline to their farms or residences. In other words, there is only a wireless solution
With the Latvian government's adoption of a national frequency plan on April 19, the Public Utilities Regulation Board will be able to decide whether and how to allocate part of the 450 Mhz spectrum for rural fixed telephony. Lattelekom has asked to be given some 450 Mhz spectrum for its rural fixed wireless, but the request has gone unanswered for many months. Now it remains to be seen whether the regulator will wait for new rules on the allocation of "scarce" spectrum that could make it possible to auction or charge a less-than-nominal fee for the rest of the 450 Mhz spectrum. If Lattelekom has to bid against others, this may make cost even more of an issue in the rural modernization project.
Ericsson has the advantage of being a known and established supplier to Lattelekom and probably can offer some cost of ownership advantages with its higher price tag. The support base is just across the Baltic, not in China (unless Huawei has built up a permanent Europe-based support organization, which it might have).
However, but cutting the base price low enough, the Chinese supplier can probably outweigh such factors. In any case, a lot of equipment is probably more or less "generic" and increasingly reliable, so barring new hurricane-strength storms, you will not be flying in technicians from Shenzen very often to deal with a malfunctioning cdma450 base station.
Whatever the choice, cdma 450 is the hot new/old (where NMT used to be) 3G grade technology and Lattelekom has few other currently viable choices for finishing up network modernization. WiMax is another, unproven technology and primarily aimed at data/internet markets (possibly IP TV), not voice. Somehow, I don't see some Latvian rural shack dweller installing Windows Media 10 (or whatever it is now) on his PC so he can get HD TV broadcasts over WiMax.
Other background noise
Triatel, Latvia's only cdma 450 wireless, fixed wireless and internet access provider, is moving ahead rather slowly. Uptake of the "non-standard" service is somewhat disappointing. Huawei is said to have seen them as well.
Business customers may be waiting for Latvian Mobile Telephone and Tele2 to move beyond their token UMTS deployments to see what their coverage and pricing look like. Triatel has positioned itself as serving mainly business customers, who will wait to see what the "big two" and possibly Bite GSM have to offer on the UMTS side. Also lacking (except for internet access) are 3G specific content and services. Mobile TV and entertainment (games, tones, video) will lead the way on the consumer side once 3G handsets start selling.
Wednesday, April 13, 2005
Pushing 100 in Italy, banging in the Middle East
The Latvian networking website www.draugiem.lv has passed the 260 000 registered user mark, while its Italian affiliate (announced on this blog) www.vostriamici.it should hit 100 users any minute now. I assume these 100 folks are the "seeders" and their first catch.
Meanwhile, the 260 000 figure has to be taken with a small grain of salt, since when you have that many, it gets harder to eliminate jokesters and false names. My middle son (18) in Sweden was on the site as a Star Wars character for a couple of weeks (and as my friend) until someone eliminated him/it :). I also doubt that Latvian fashion photographer Valts Kleins has been doing the draugiem.lv photos for some of the 17-year old young ladies from Moss Village (Sūnuciems), who look like they are posing for the next swimsuit calendar or a Cosmo cover. On the other hand, Latvia does have an enormous concentration of very attractive women.
Nonetheless, draugiem.lv remains the second largest attention platform after Latvian TV and exceeds any print media in its potential reach, as well as assembling a huge part of the at least minimally internet-knowledgeable 18 -35 Latvian middle class.
Hariri behind International Telecommunications & Technologies?
One of my sources tells me that the late Lebanese billionare and ex-prime minister Rafik Hariri was a major player behind the mysterious International Telecommunications & Technology (IT&T) consortium, which, at the end of the day, failed to bid for the third Latvian UMTS and GSM license. Alas, some of Hariri sleeps with the fishes, other bits perhaps feed the rooftop birds and most of the entrepreneur has been given a decent burial since he was killed by a carbomb in Beirut a couple of months ago. As a result of a major investor's death, IT&T apparently fell apart. While this information is also to be taken cautiuously (IT&T faded just as mysterious as when it appeared), at least there would have been some serious money behind the unknown company.
On the other hand, perhaps all the better – it is an open question as to whether Lebanon isn't drifting back toward unrest, perhaps another civil war. Better Denmark and Lithuania than a company depending on an unstable and potentially explosive region for its financing.
Meanwhile the winner of the auction, Danish TDC's Lithuanian subsidiary Bite GSM is moving at full speed to recruit a team in Latvia, recently running a full page ad in the Latvian daily Diena looking for various kinds of management, PR and engineering staff.
Meanwhile, the 260 000 figure has to be taken with a small grain of salt, since when you have that many, it gets harder to eliminate jokesters and false names. My middle son (18) in Sweden was on the site as a Star Wars character for a couple of weeks (and as my friend) until someone eliminated him/it :). I also doubt that Latvian fashion photographer Valts Kleins has been doing the draugiem.lv photos for some of the 17-year old young ladies from Moss Village (Sūnuciems), who look like they are posing for the next swimsuit calendar or a Cosmo cover. On the other hand, Latvia does have an enormous concentration of very attractive women.
Nonetheless, draugiem.lv remains the second largest attention platform after Latvian TV and exceeds any print media in its potential reach, as well as assembling a huge part of the at least minimally internet-knowledgeable 18 -35 Latvian middle class.
Hariri behind International Telecommunications & Technologies?
One of my sources tells me that the late Lebanese billionare and ex-prime minister Rafik Hariri was a major player behind the mysterious International Telecommunications & Technology (IT&T) consortium, which, at the end of the day, failed to bid for the third Latvian UMTS and GSM license. Alas, some of Hariri sleeps with the fishes, other bits perhaps feed the rooftop birds and most of the entrepreneur has been given a decent burial since he was killed by a carbomb in Beirut a couple of months ago. As a result of a major investor's death, IT&T apparently fell apart. While this information is also to be taken cautiuously (IT&T faded just as mysterious as when it appeared), at least there would have been some serious money behind the unknown company.
On the other hand, perhaps all the better – it is an open question as to whether Lebanon isn't drifting back toward unrest, perhaps another civil war. Better Denmark and Lithuania than a company depending on an unstable and potentially explosive region for its financing.
Meanwhile the winner of the auction, Danish TDC's Lithuanian subsidiary Bite GSM is moving at full speed to recruit a team in Latvia, recently running a full page ad in the Latvian daily Diena looking for various kinds of management, PR and engineering staff.
Saturday, April 09, 2005
Latvian friends network goes italiano
The Latvian friends networking website www.draugiem.lv has started an Italian franchise, www.vostriamici.it. The log-in page looks identical to the Latvian site, except I haven't gotten an invito, so I don't know what the inside looks like. Currently, it appears to be populated by a small number of members, basically a seeding crew who will bring in several amici each, who in turn will bring in their contacts and so forth, getting the ball rolling.
Lauris Liberts, the godfather of draugiem, has deliberately kept the launch low-key to make sure that it actually works ("works" means getting past, say, 1000 members). Another factor is that Catholic Italy has been host to the mourning and funeral ceremonies for Pope John Paul II. Once this is over, the potential target audience of amici will be getting back to everyday life and less solemn activities.
An official announcement of vostriamici probably won't be made until toward the end of the month, except that the gatto is out of the sachetto (well, the cat is out of the bag) thanks to this blog and a piece that may appear in the Latvian-language Dienas bizness next week :).
One can assume that the Italian site will be the same insalata mista of features, forums, personal profile pages, uploadable photos, etc., as the Latvian original, now edging toward 260 000 members, or more than 10 % of the population.
What is interesting about this is the hosting solution – initially amici will be hosted on Lattelekom's servers. In the mid-term, the whole site may move to an Italian host, but be administered by Lattelekom remotely. I also wonder how they will solve the problem of SMS micropayments for added services
There has been some buzz on the Latvian blogosphere (yes, there is such a thing) that the relationship between draugiem and Lattelekom may be more than arm's length. This blogger has heard from the mouths of several horses :) that this isn't so and won't be so. In other words, Lattelekom has not bought nor is is about to buy draugiem.
Having said that, there is a lingering suspicion that Lattelekom realizes it is on to something potentially big and something that may not last forever. Presently, it is like the landlord of a very crowded and popular bar. All the bar does is pay the rent, but the landlord would certainly like more of the action.
The cooperation between Lattelekom and draugiem could be like what I suggested for the third mobile operator -- sell a product with a Lattelekom platform and the draugiem brand. Right now, Lattelekom offers a kind of broadband lite, Pilsetas internets (City Internet) that has a download speed of 128 kbps (the other consumer service, HomeDSL, doubled its speed for the same money to 512 kbps).
How to synergize with draugiem? Rebrand Pilsetas internets to Draugu internets, jump the speed to 256 kbps and offer it through draugiem.lv for the same price, maybe even a discount on the DSL modem or the like. From what I have heard, TeliaMultiCom, a direct competitor of Lattelekom in significant parts of Riga (LVL 19.95 for 1 Mb is one of the best deals around if one is near their cable network) was swamped with hits on its server after it put a banner on draugiem.lv. There is a lesson and an opportunity in this.
Sorry, no music behind this one :)
Lauris Liberts, the godfather of draugiem, has deliberately kept the launch low-key to make sure that it actually works ("works" means getting past, say, 1000 members). Another factor is that Catholic Italy has been host to the mourning and funeral ceremonies for Pope John Paul II. Once this is over, the potential target audience of amici will be getting back to everyday life and less solemn activities.
An official announcement of vostriamici probably won't be made until toward the end of the month, except that the gatto is out of the sachetto (well, the cat is out of the bag) thanks to this blog and a piece that may appear in the Latvian-language Dienas bizness next week :).
One can assume that the Italian site will be the same insalata mista of features, forums, personal profile pages, uploadable photos, etc., as the Latvian original, now edging toward 260 000 members, or more than 10 % of the population.
What is interesting about this is the hosting solution – initially amici will be hosted on Lattelekom's servers. In the mid-term, the whole site may move to an Italian host, but be administered by Lattelekom remotely. I also wonder how they will solve the problem of SMS micropayments for added services
There has been some buzz on the Latvian blogosphere (yes, there is such a thing) that the relationship between draugiem and Lattelekom may be more than arm's length. This blogger has heard from the mouths of several horses :) that this isn't so and won't be so. In other words, Lattelekom has not bought nor is is about to buy draugiem.
Having said that, there is a lingering suspicion that Lattelekom realizes it is on to something potentially big and something that may not last forever. Presently, it is like the landlord of a very crowded and popular bar. All the bar does is pay the rent, but the landlord would certainly like more of the action.
The cooperation between Lattelekom and draugiem could be like what I suggested for the third mobile operator -- sell a product with a Lattelekom platform and the draugiem brand. Right now, Lattelekom offers a kind of broadband lite, Pilsetas internets (City Internet) that has a download speed of 128 kbps (the other consumer service, HomeDSL, doubled its speed for the same money to 512 kbps).
How to synergize with draugiem? Rebrand Pilsetas internets to Draugu internets, jump the speed to 256 kbps and offer it through draugiem.lv for the same price, maybe even a discount on the DSL modem or the like. From what I have heard, TeliaMultiCom, a direct competitor of Lattelekom in significant parts of Riga (LVL 19.95 for 1 Mb is one of the best deals around if one is near their cable network) was swamped with hits on its server after it put a banner on draugiem.lv. There is a lesson and an opportunity in this.
Sorry, no music behind this one :)
Thursday, April 07, 2005
Paying by the number in Latvia
Read what I blog, don't read what I publish.
The Communications Department of the Latvian Ministry of Transport has proposed charging a fee for telephone numbering resources, suggesting an amount of LVL 0.50 per number per year, or LVL 0.0416 per customer line or unused number per month.
Well, the paper I work for wants to emphasize that (quoting Latvian Mobile Telephone president Juris Binde)these charges will put a damper on expected sharp declines in mobile phone rates.
This is an accurate reflection of Binde's views, whereas Tele2 issued a statement saying that the charges would not affect tariffs, but would cause additional costs to all operators.
As a journalist who has to take a critical attitude toward any and all sources, I was reluctant to emphasize the possible "braking effect" on future tariff reductions, as my paper has.
In my educated opinion, these statements are, well, just statements. I believe the effect of a LVL 0.0416 increase in cost per customer per month on future tariffs will be:
JACK SHIT
(a colorful American expression for nothing).
The total cost of numbering resources for LMT will be more than LVL 500 000, about 36 hours of turnover or around three days net earnings. It will be relatively higher for Tele2 with its prepaid dominance and lower ARPU.
However, under the proposed scheme, these costs will be avoidable if mobile and fixed operators give back a substantial part of their inventories of reserved numbers and adopt a "just in time" approach for taking numbering resources from the authorities. Certainly, Lattelekom has some 2.5 million unused numbers it would gladly dump, while the more than LVL 300 000 it would be paying for its active numbers can be recouping in any number of ways short of adding 4 santims to everyone's monthly bill.
In addition, the entry of the new third mobile operator will bring about sharp tariff cuts and no one can fail to match them or at least have a very strong value-for-money proposal as to why anyone should pay even a little more (initially, coverage and quality could be issues for Bite in Latvia). So the effect on tariff cuts will be zilch.
If there is anything to worry about, I would look at the way the EUR 150 million investment requirement will be formulated in Bite GSM's licence. If the government literally meant that all that money had to be spend shopping at Nortel, Nokia, Ericsson or – why not – Huawei in the space of a few years, building a physically independent network (down to the towers?), then someone will have to recover that investment. On the other hand, if it is a loose figure for spending over the life of the licence, it's another story. Then Bite can truly look for an optimal, low cost solution, perhaps buy carrier capacity from others, share towers (especially for UMTS, three on a pole is better than three poles on the same hilltop). This we shall see in the next few weeks.
The Communications Department of the Latvian Ministry of Transport has proposed charging a fee for telephone numbering resources, suggesting an amount of LVL 0.50 per number per year, or LVL 0.0416 per customer line or unused number per month.
Well, the paper I work for wants to emphasize that (quoting Latvian Mobile Telephone president Juris Binde)these charges will put a damper on expected sharp declines in mobile phone rates.
This is an accurate reflection of Binde's views, whereas Tele2 issued a statement saying that the charges would not affect tariffs, but would cause additional costs to all operators.
As a journalist who has to take a critical attitude toward any and all sources, I was reluctant to emphasize the possible "braking effect" on future tariff reductions, as my paper has.
In my educated opinion, these statements are, well, just statements. I believe the effect of a LVL 0.0416 increase in cost per customer per month on future tariffs will be:
JACK SHIT
(a colorful American expression for nothing).
The total cost of numbering resources for LMT will be more than LVL 500 000, about 36 hours of turnover or around three days net earnings. It will be relatively higher for Tele2 with its prepaid dominance and lower ARPU.
However, under the proposed scheme, these costs will be avoidable if mobile and fixed operators give back a substantial part of their inventories of reserved numbers and adopt a "just in time" approach for taking numbering resources from the authorities. Certainly, Lattelekom has some 2.5 million unused numbers it would gladly dump, while the more than LVL 300 000 it would be paying for its active numbers can be recouping in any number of ways short of adding 4 santims to everyone's monthly bill.
In addition, the entry of the new third mobile operator will bring about sharp tariff cuts and no one can fail to match them or at least have a very strong value-for-money proposal as to why anyone should pay even a little more (initially, coverage and quality could be issues for Bite in Latvia). So the effect on tariff cuts will be zilch.
If there is anything to worry about, I would look at the way the EUR 150 million investment requirement will be formulated in Bite GSM's licence. If the government literally meant that all that money had to be spend shopping at Nortel, Nokia, Ericsson or – why not – Huawei in the space of a few years, building a physically independent network (down to the towers?), then someone will have to recover that investment. On the other hand, if it is a loose figure for spending over the life of the licence, it's another story. Then Bite can truly look for an optimal, low cost solution, perhaps buy carrier capacity from others, share towers (especially for UMTS, three on a pole is better than three poles on the same hilltop). This we shall see in the next few weeks.
Wednesday, April 06, 2005
The Blogospheres intersect/Number schemes
The blog explodes
All news is local news. My Google adsense meter indicates an orgy of interest (500 + hits compared to 50 on a normal good day) after I wrote about that increasingly popular Latvian pastime, www.draugiem.lv. For my non-Latvian readers, this is a Friendster-style networking website that exploded from zilch in April 2004 to more that 250 000 registered users a year later. It was started by Lauris Liberts, an enthusiast-entrepreneur and reputedly some kind of child film star back in the waning days of the USSR, when almost everyone using draugiem.lv these days was also a child or unborn or whatever.
I'm glad that the Latvian net users are reading the blog, making comments. I have also discovered that a number of them are blogging themselves, in Latvian, and that there is a considerable Latvian blogosphere. Some pretty awesome people. One guy, while not a rocket scientist is studying the mathematics of rocket science. I must have drawn the short stick in the gene pool, because my dad was, well, studying the same stuff when he was almost this blog comment writer's age (21 back in 1938 vs 22). I have no idea what this man, Pēteris, does, but it has to do with quantum math and other arcane stuff. I have to ask my dad, now 88, what this is all about the next time I call the States. I'm sure he got around to studying some of it before WWII derailed a lot of his plans. But he retired as a systems test engineer from Honeywell in the US, while his son (and one of his grandsons, who now is of student age) are, as Latvians put it, "drillers of the thin table surface" ( plānā galdiņa urbēji).
Who's got your number?
Well, back on topic -- the only news in telecoms is that Lattelekom has proposed rezoning Latvia's 26 area codes into 11, freeing up 2.5 million phone numbers and solving the problem of whether to switch to eight digit numbers (which Lattelekom says would cost the Latvian economy as a whole some LVL 17 million). The seven digit numbers are all parceled out in 100 000 number lots, which means that in some of the 26 area code zones, only Staņislavs the farmer and his cow Malvīne have fixed line numbers, the other 99998 are unused but reserved for the immediate area around Mossville (Sūnuciems) in darkest Čangladesh (Eastern Latvia, known in politically correct terminology as Latgale).
The two existing mobile operators have been burning through numbers and it seemed for a while that none would be left (except for 40 000 set aside for the new operator, now to be Danish-owned Bite GSM). Now the Communication Department of the Ministry of Transport has asked that 300 000 numbers be freed up immediately for the mobile sector, in essence upsetting its own plans for a transition to eight digits (these were to be used as transitional numbers, let Pēteris do the math on that :) ). Officially, the Department says it will propose both options, Lattelekom's save-the-seven digits plan, and a new, as yet to be drafted scheme for transition to eight digits (and abolishing the domestic area codes?). We shall see, but I think that Lattelekom's scheme or some variation on it will fly. By the time any faults in keeping seven digits and different zones turn up, I suspect most urban telecoms users in Latvia will be more worried about their IP addresses than their so-called phone numbers. And hey, who needs number portability if you have a (several?) Skype names?
Music on the earphones while writing this post:
Eddie Grant, Electric Avenue, Bob Dylan, Forever Young, Subterrenean Homesick Blues, Creedance Clearwater Revival, Mustang Sally, Donovan, Season of the Witch, The Doors, Five to One, Peter Tosh, Legalize It !, Boston, More Than a Feeling.
All news is local news. My Google adsense meter indicates an orgy of interest (500 + hits compared to 50 on a normal good day) after I wrote about that increasingly popular Latvian pastime, www.draugiem.lv. For my non-Latvian readers, this is a Friendster-style networking website that exploded from zilch in April 2004 to more that 250 000 registered users a year later. It was started by Lauris Liberts, an enthusiast-entrepreneur and reputedly some kind of child film star back in the waning days of the USSR, when almost everyone using draugiem.lv these days was also a child or unborn or whatever.
I'm glad that the Latvian net users are reading the blog, making comments. I have also discovered that a number of them are blogging themselves, in Latvian, and that there is a considerable Latvian blogosphere. Some pretty awesome people. One guy, while not a rocket scientist is studying the mathematics of rocket science. I must have drawn the short stick in the gene pool, because my dad was, well, studying the same stuff when he was almost this blog comment writer's age (21 back in 1938 vs 22). I have no idea what this man, Pēteris, does, but it has to do with quantum math and other arcane stuff. I have to ask my dad, now 88, what this is all about the next time I call the States. I'm sure he got around to studying some of it before WWII derailed a lot of his plans. But he retired as a systems test engineer from Honeywell in the US, while his son (and one of his grandsons, who now is of student age) are, as Latvians put it, "drillers of the thin table surface" ( plānā galdiņa urbēji).
Who's got your number?
Well, back on topic -- the only news in telecoms is that Lattelekom has proposed rezoning Latvia's 26 area codes into 11, freeing up 2.5 million phone numbers and solving the problem of whether to switch to eight digit numbers (which Lattelekom says would cost the Latvian economy as a whole some LVL 17 million). The seven digit numbers are all parceled out in 100 000 number lots, which means that in some of the 26 area code zones, only Staņislavs the farmer and his cow Malvīne have fixed line numbers, the other 99998 are unused but reserved for the immediate area around Mossville (Sūnuciems) in darkest Čangladesh (Eastern Latvia, known in politically correct terminology as Latgale).
The two existing mobile operators have been burning through numbers and it seemed for a while that none would be left (except for 40 000 set aside for the new operator, now to be Danish-owned Bite GSM). Now the Communication Department of the Ministry of Transport has asked that 300 000 numbers be freed up immediately for the mobile sector, in essence upsetting its own plans for a transition to eight digits (these were to be used as transitional numbers, let Pēteris do the math on that :) ). Officially, the Department says it will propose both options, Lattelekom's save-the-seven digits plan, and a new, as yet to be drafted scheme for transition to eight digits (and abolishing the domestic area codes?). We shall see, but I think that Lattelekom's scheme or some variation on it will fly. By the time any faults in keeping seven digits and different zones turn up, I suspect most urban telecoms users in Latvia will be more worried about their IP addresses than their so-called phone numbers. And hey, who needs number portability if you have a (several?) Skype names?
Music on the earphones while writing this post:
Eddie Grant, Electric Avenue, Bob Dylan, Forever Young, Subterrenean Homesick Blues, Creedance Clearwater Revival, Mustang Sally, Donovan, Season of the Witch, The Doors, Five to One, Peter Tosh, Legalize It !, Boston, More Than a Feeling.
Tuesday, April 05, 2005
A letter to Lauris and Jesper
Spring has come to Riga, so perhaps it's OK to air some strange ideas. These are addressed to Lauris Liberts, the godfather of draugiem.lv (the Latvian Friendster) and Jesper Eriksen of Bite GSM (the winner of the Latvian third GSM/UMTS licence).
Lauri (now I'm mixing in the Latvian declination to address someone :)), you've basically signed up the entire Latvian young middle class and those who soon will be. Around 255 000 of them, more than 10 % of the whole f**king population of Latvia (2.3 million)! No other quasi-medium has that kind of audience, attention platform, call it what you will. And these people want to communicate with each other. That's the whole draugiem.lv point, it would seem, at least for the young singles and even those in relationships simply widening their networks.
A logical extension of draugiem.lv would be draugiem (draugu karte?), the mobile phone card. It could come with some free SMS and MMS, easy payment from the balance for all the draugiem.lv micropayments (starting your photo album, other stuff).
For Jesper, the draugiem card would be one way to get a fast-track start on selling capacity on the new Bite Latvia or whatever it will be called network. Bite GSM declared that its approach in Latvia would be to sell an open network, so the more virtual operators, the better.
I think, quite frankly, the thing would fly. My sources tell me that when Telia MultiCom -- which has nothing to do with Telia any longer -- advertised in a small banner on draugiem.lv for its new cheaper and faster broadband internet, the response crashed Telia MultiCom's server. With more and more workplaces restricting draugiem (it has become the default desktop for some users :) ), there is an incentive to have access, preferably broadband, at home. Once you have that, it is a short step to all those draugiem friends Skyping each other (unless you, Lauri, come up with a tweak of Skype just for draugiem, maybe an IP push-to-talk thing the way you can now click on a name to send an e-mail. There would have to be consent for getting these calls, though). At the end of the day (literally), you might even crash those Lattelekom servers hosting you and when you have 300 000 mobile pre-paid and IP voice customers on the system, Lattelekom may 1) regret the day they let you in or 2) buy you out :).
Another idea, Jesper, is to sell your entry-level, low-end services through draugiem.lv and see what happens. Not a bad association to have.
I hope nothing happens to dampen the enthusiasm for draugiem.lv over the summer, because the new Bite Latvia or whatever won't be up and running until the fall at the earliest.
In the tradition of Wired magazine when my old college friend Louis Rossetto was still running it, I will list the music I was listening to on my earphones from iTunes while writing this (mind you, I rarely do this).
The Music Behind this Post:
Neil Young, Rocking the Free World, Jimi Hendrix, Machine Gun, The Eagles, Take It Easy, Simon & Garfunkel, America, The Standells, Dirty Water (OK, I grew near Boston :)), The Mamas & Pappas, California Dreamin', Golden Earring, Radar Love, The Grateful Dead, Truckin' and Sugar Magnolia (while revising some errors).
Lauri (now I'm mixing in the Latvian declination to address someone :)), you've basically signed up the entire Latvian young middle class and those who soon will be. Around 255 000 of them, more than 10 % of the whole f**king population of Latvia (2.3 million)! No other quasi-medium has that kind of audience, attention platform, call it what you will. And these people want to communicate with each other. That's the whole draugiem.lv point, it would seem, at least for the young singles and even those in relationships simply widening their networks.
A logical extension of draugiem.lv would be draugiem (draugu karte?), the mobile phone card. It could come with some free SMS and MMS, easy payment from the balance for all the draugiem.lv micropayments (starting your photo album, other stuff).
For Jesper, the draugiem card would be one way to get a fast-track start on selling capacity on the new Bite Latvia or whatever it will be called network. Bite GSM declared that its approach in Latvia would be to sell an open network, so the more virtual operators, the better.
I think, quite frankly, the thing would fly. My sources tell me that when Telia MultiCom -- which has nothing to do with Telia any longer -- advertised in a small banner on draugiem.lv for its new cheaper and faster broadband internet, the response crashed Telia MultiCom's server. With more and more workplaces restricting draugiem (it has become the default desktop for some users :) ), there is an incentive to have access, preferably broadband, at home. Once you have that, it is a short step to all those draugiem friends Skyping each other (unless you, Lauri, come up with a tweak of Skype just for draugiem, maybe an IP push-to-talk thing the way you can now click on a name to send an e-mail. There would have to be consent for getting these calls, though). At the end of the day (literally), you might even crash those Lattelekom servers hosting you and when you have 300 000 mobile pre-paid and IP voice customers on the system, Lattelekom may 1) regret the day they let you in or 2) buy you out :).
Another idea, Jesper, is to sell your entry-level, low-end services through draugiem.lv and see what happens. Not a bad association to have.
I hope nothing happens to dampen the enthusiasm for draugiem.lv over the summer, because the new Bite Latvia or whatever won't be up and running until the fall at the earliest.
In the tradition of Wired magazine when my old college friend Louis Rossetto was still running it, I will list the music I was listening to on my earphones from iTunes while writing this (mind you, I rarely do this).
The Music Behind this Post:
Neil Young, Rocking the Free World, Jimi Hendrix, Machine Gun, The Eagles, Take It Easy, Simon & Garfunkel, America, The Standells, Dirty Water (OK, I grew near Boston :)), The Mamas & Pappas, California Dreamin', Golden Earring, Radar Love, The Grateful Dead, Truckin' and Sugar Magnolia (while revising some errors).
Sunday, April 03, 2005
What may soon be news and what is...
One purpose of this blog has been to hint at what may be news in telecoms and IT in Latvia in the near future. Some of the following was gleaned during a recent trip to Sweden accompanying the Latvian business delegation that accompanied Latvia's president Vaira Vike-Freiberga.
A multimillion banking IT deal?
Look for a Latvian IT company landing a contract with a major Swedish bank to do software maintenance on the bank's COBOL-based legacy systems running on mainframes and to eventually oversee the migration of these (sometimes core functions) to modern computing platforms. This will be a multi-million deal, in SEK, at least.
Smoothing the road to privatizing Lattelekom...
The feeling is that Sweden's TeliaSonera is no longer being stone-walled by the Latvian government on the issue of getting a majority in Lattelekom (it currently holds 49 %). The new government of Aigars Kalvitis and Minister of Economics Krisjanis Karins appear to be open to privatizing at least part of the government stake in Lattelekom and TeliaSonera appears to have reduced expectations of getting 100 % as it has publically declared earlier. The Swedish company has obtained just over 50 % of Estonia's fixed telecoms company and seems to be happy with that, having met its minimal goal of seeking a majority holding in all of its Baltic associated companies.
...and to IP TV in Latvia
TeliaSonera is apparently satisfied with the early phase of its IP-TV over broadband offering in Sweden and will be helping Lattelekom launch a similar product in Latvia in the next few months (see this blog earlier).
Ericsson looks to Bite
The "old news" by now is that Bite GSM, a subsidiary of Danish TDC, won the auction for Latvia's third GSM and UMTS licence by offering to pay more than LVL 6 million (the starting price was LVL 1.3 million). TDC and Bite are old Ericsson customers, and the Swedish-based telecoms multinational expects to compete to supply the new operator in Latvia. Under the auction terms, the new operator has to spend at least EUR 150 million on a distinct new network, so that is the smallest cake that Ericsson and other foreign companies (including newcomer Huawei) can hope to divide. Good for them, but what was the Latvian government thinking? Infrastructrure prices are falling and the new operator's cost of build-out is one of the most significant elements of how it will have to calculate its return on investment (and, in turn, set tariffs or position value-added services).
Bite's victory also means that virtual operators will blossom in Latvia, challenging Tele2, whose customer base is largely prepaid, as well as throwing down the gauntlet to Amigo, the virtual operator leasing Latvian Mobile Telephone's (LMT) network.
Who knows, now that Easyjet is flying to Riga, perhaps the airline's mobile phone card affiliate will also turn up here. Indeed, it appears that once Bite in Latvia (or however it will brand itself) will have a number of virtual operators among its first customers. However, this will happen in the late fall at the earliest.
Higher HomeDSL speeds announced
Lattelekom, as this blog anticipated, has also announced it has doubled the speed of its HomeDSL service to 512 kbps from the previous 256 kbps, effective April 1 (no joke I hope). I have not really noticed the difference yet, but there is always a disparity between real throughput (involving all links of the internet) and the "official" speed of a link.
A multimillion banking IT deal?
Look for a Latvian IT company landing a contract with a major Swedish bank to do software maintenance on the bank's COBOL-based legacy systems running on mainframes and to eventually oversee the migration of these (sometimes core functions) to modern computing platforms. This will be a multi-million deal, in SEK, at least.
Smoothing the road to privatizing Lattelekom...
The feeling is that Sweden's TeliaSonera is no longer being stone-walled by the Latvian government on the issue of getting a majority in Lattelekom (it currently holds 49 %). The new government of Aigars Kalvitis and Minister of Economics Krisjanis Karins appear to be open to privatizing at least part of the government stake in Lattelekom and TeliaSonera appears to have reduced expectations of getting 100 % as it has publically declared earlier. The Swedish company has obtained just over 50 % of Estonia's fixed telecoms company and seems to be happy with that, having met its minimal goal of seeking a majority holding in all of its Baltic associated companies.
...and to IP TV in Latvia
TeliaSonera is apparently satisfied with the early phase of its IP-TV over broadband offering in Sweden and will be helping Lattelekom launch a similar product in Latvia in the next few months (see this blog earlier).
Ericsson looks to Bite
The "old news" by now is that Bite GSM, a subsidiary of Danish TDC, won the auction for Latvia's third GSM and UMTS licence by offering to pay more than LVL 6 million (the starting price was LVL 1.3 million). TDC and Bite are old Ericsson customers, and the Swedish-based telecoms multinational expects to compete to supply the new operator in Latvia. Under the auction terms, the new operator has to spend at least EUR 150 million on a distinct new network, so that is the smallest cake that Ericsson and other foreign companies (including newcomer Huawei) can hope to divide. Good for them, but what was the Latvian government thinking? Infrastructrure prices are falling and the new operator's cost of build-out is one of the most significant elements of how it will have to calculate its return on investment (and, in turn, set tariffs or position value-added services).
Bite's victory also means that virtual operators will blossom in Latvia, challenging Tele2, whose customer base is largely prepaid, as well as throwing down the gauntlet to Amigo, the virtual operator leasing Latvian Mobile Telephone's (LMT) network.
Who knows, now that Easyjet is flying to Riga, perhaps the airline's mobile phone card affiliate will also turn up here. Indeed, it appears that once Bite in Latvia (or however it will brand itself) will have a number of virtual operators among its first customers. However, this will happen in the late fall at the earliest.
Higher HomeDSL speeds announced
Lattelekom, as this blog anticipated, has also announced it has doubled the speed of its HomeDSL service to 512 kbps from the previous 256 kbps, effective April 1 (no joke I hope). I have not really noticed the difference yet, but there is always a disparity between real throughput (involving all links of the internet) and the "official" speed of a link.
Tuesday, March 29, 2005
Broadband price and offer war starts
A broadband price and value proposition war seems to be breaking out in Latvia. First Lattelekom doubled the speed of its UltraDSL business class connections (to a maxium 4 Mbps), then Telia MultiCom (TMC) announced it was slashing prices yet again for the consumer sector, making a 1 Mb line at LVL 19.95 a bargain compared to the ca. LVL 18 one now pays for HomeDSL, including renting a DSL modem from Lattelekom. Even if Lattelekom doubles the speed of its HomeDSL connection (as rumored), the TMC deal is pretty attractive.
Now cable TV, internet and telecoms provider Baltkom is slashing its broadband prices (they are still above TMC's) but throwing in a LVL 1 subsidized computer deal. The machines on offer (starting from LVL 25 downwards) are relatively new, refurbished hand-me-downs from the US with some Linux bells and whistles installed. You have to sign up for at least two years of a package of services from Baltkom (presumably, the more, the cheaper your computer).
By adapting the subsidized mobile handset model, Baltkom has gotten the jump on its competitors, since there is not much to do with the internet unless you have a computer.
Watch for Lattelekom coming up with something similar, but more high-end. The killer value proposition here will be IP TV, so if you ask me, the deal should be for a big flatscreen monitor (say, 17 or 2o inches), with the whole Windows Media package (I grate my teeth, I would gladly take an iMac G5 ), payable in installments along with a turboclass DSL line. What it will be in reality is another question. Lattelekom flopped once with a computer and dialup deal, perhaps an exception that proves the rule.
To be sure, there are unanswered quality and coverage issues with most of the offers. TMC says it has a 100 mbps link to the international internet, but will that suffice if lots of folks jump on the 1 mbps offer? Baltkom owns its own optical cable from Latvia to the Swedish island of Gotland with a further link to the mainland and the global networks that terminate there. This means Baltkom has more than enough bandwidth, but so does everyone else, so this is probably not an issue. Both Baltkom and TMC cover only those areas within the reach of their private optical networks, Lattelekom can deliver DSL nationwide, almost in all cities and towns and probably via WiMax or cdma 450 anywhere.
On the business side, Lattelekom will probably look to hosting and "leasing" applications for small and medium sized businesses, perhaps packaging these with a business broadband subscription. The company probably realizes that the more broadband there is, the less pay-by-the-minute voice there will be, so my advice to Lattelekom would be to be skilled at implementing corporate VOIP, perhaps folding a Skype solution into its offer (for intraoffice and most other calls).
Now cable TV, internet and telecoms provider Baltkom is slashing its broadband prices (they are still above TMC's) but throwing in a LVL 1 subsidized computer deal. The machines on offer (starting from LVL 25 downwards) are relatively new, refurbished hand-me-downs from the US with some Linux bells and whistles installed. You have to sign up for at least two years of a package of services from Baltkom (presumably, the more, the cheaper your computer).
By adapting the subsidized mobile handset model, Baltkom has gotten the jump on its competitors, since there is not much to do with the internet unless you have a computer.
Watch for Lattelekom coming up with something similar, but more high-end. The killer value proposition here will be IP TV, so if you ask me, the deal should be for a big flatscreen monitor (say, 17 or 2o inches), with the whole Windows Media package (I grate my teeth, I would gladly take an iMac G5 ), payable in installments along with a turboclass DSL line. What it will be in reality is another question. Lattelekom flopped once with a computer and dialup deal, perhaps an exception that proves the rule.
To be sure, there are unanswered quality and coverage issues with most of the offers. TMC says it has a 100 mbps link to the international internet, but will that suffice if lots of folks jump on the 1 mbps offer? Baltkom owns its own optical cable from Latvia to the Swedish island of Gotland with a further link to the mainland and the global networks that terminate there. This means Baltkom has more than enough bandwidth, but so does everyone else, so this is probably not an issue. Both Baltkom and TMC cover only those areas within the reach of their private optical networks, Lattelekom can deliver DSL nationwide, almost in all cities and towns and probably via WiMax or cdma 450 anywhere.
On the business side, Lattelekom will probably look to hosting and "leasing" applications for small and medium sized businesses, perhaps packaging these with a business broadband subscription. The company probably realizes that the more broadband there is, the less pay-by-the-minute voice there will be, so my advice to Lattelekom would be to be skilled at implementing corporate VOIP, perhaps folding a Skype solution into its offer (for intraoffice and most other calls).
Monday, March 28, 2005
Lattelekom preparing to shapeshift
Look for Lattelekom becoming more of an IT services provider for small and medium-sized business and, at the same time, gearing up for IT TV for consumers within the next few months. The Latvian fixed network ex-monopolist's approach to the SMEs is "we can (almost) do it all". That means that Lattelekom actively offers SME business customers to completely wire their facilities - ISDN phone lines, a computer network, broadband internet, VPNs, the works...except for, you guessed it, the mobile phones no SME can operate without.
This blogger has learned that Lattelekom and Latvian Mobile Telephone (LMT) (both owned by the same part-parent, Swedish TeliaSonera have been talking for a couple of years about the obvious – seamlessly integrating their customer offering and essentially becoming a one-stop shop for each other, as is the case in Sweden with the parent's fixed and mobile divisions.
One reason why the talks (involving some powerful managers from Lattelekom) have been dragging on could be that LMT, which has been making huge profits, sees no need to bend to anyone. Also, like any other mobile operator in the world, it can just sit back and wait for more and more voice traffic to come its way. People, as one may have noticed, have been mobile for the past 50 000 years (location-based services and Nokia mobiles would have done wonders for mammoth hunting back then :) ) so that is where, unsurprisingly, they use voice services.
Meanwhile, the business and home side is becoming more and more of an IP-based show, whether for internet, data transmission (company WANs or whatever), entertainment and self-service (Skype) or bundled IP based voice.
In apparent anticipation of IPTV, Lattelekom has or may soon boost the speed of its HomeDSL services to 512 kbps from the current 256 kbps as it did for the business service UltraDSL. For home users, that still may not be the best deal on the block (if the block is near the right optical network), since Telia MultiCom, no longer owned by any Swedes, just doubled its speeds again, LVL 19.95 will get a 1 Mbps line in the home, which is twice as good as the expected HomeDSL on steroids, though one wonders about real end-to-end speeds for both.
In any case, Lattelekom has boosted the basic speed of its DSL link (DSLAM to the user) to 4 Mbps, more than enough to carry state-of-the-art compressed video. As this blogger has hinted, Lattelekom will be launching television services using IP TV over the next few months. Whether this will be fully commercial or just a pilot project remains to be seen.
The auction
This week will also see the March 31 auction of Latvia's third GSM/UMTS licence. Squaring off will be Danish TDC-owned Bite GSM and Peteris Smidre's consortium of SIA Alina and MVC Capital of the US. In a pre-auction announcement, TDC has thrown down the gauntlet to Tele2 by saying that if it wins, it will open its network to virtual operators (i.e. selling their own brand prepaid cards) from the very start. This means that any Latvian Bite (means bee) will first sting the biggest card-based operator on the market, which is Tele2. No surprise that Tele2 has been aggressively pursing corporate customers at the LMT end of the market. It is said to be close to a deal with Hansabanka, which so far has let its several hundred employees choose their own provider within the framework of a business call compensation deal. However, with telecoms expenses of around LVL 1 million per annum, Hansabanka may benefit from having all their mobiles services by one operator. The problem is, there is no official number portability until December 1, by which time the new operator will be up and running, with cdma 450 operator Triatel also making new moves as its network expands and it offers wireless DSL at 2.4 Mbps by the summer (so I am told).
It should be an interesting week. Sorry for not blogging more often, just lots of other stuff going on...
This blogger has learned that Lattelekom and Latvian Mobile Telephone (LMT) (both owned by the same part-parent, Swedish TeliaSonera have been talking for a couple of years about the obvious – seamlessly integrating their customer offering and essentially becoming a one-stop shop for each other, as is the case in Sweden with the parent's fixed and mobile divisions.
One reason why the talks (involving some powerful managers from Lattelekom) have been dragging on could be that LMT, which has been making huge profits, sees no need to bend to anyone. Also, like any other mobile operator in the world, it can just sit back and wait for more and more voice traffic to come its way. People, as one may have noticed, have been mobile for the past 50 000 years (location-based services and Nokia mobiles would have done wonders for mammoth hunting back then :) ) so that is where, unsurprisingly, they use voice services.
Meanwhile, the business and home side is becoming more and more of an IP-based show, whether for internet, data transmission (company WANs or whatever), entertainment and self-service (Skype) or bundled IP based voice.
In apparent anticipation of IPTV, Lattelekom has or may soon boost the speed of its HomeDSL services to 512 kbps from the current 256 kbps as it did for the business service UltraDSL. For home users, that still may not be the best deal on the block (if the block is near the right optical network), since Telia MultiCom, no longer owned by any Swedes, just doubled its speeds again, LVL 19.95 will get a 1 Mbps line in the home, which is twice as good as the expected HomeDSL on steroids, though one wonders about real end-to-end speeds for both.
In any case, Lattelekom has boosted the basic speed of its DSL link (DSLAM to the user) to 4 Mbps, more than enough to carry state-of-the-art compressed video. As this blogger has hinted, Lattelekom will be launching television services using IP TV over the next few months. Whether this will be fully commercial or just a pilot project remains to be seen.
The auction
This week will also see the March 31 auction of Latvia's third GSM/UMTS licence. Squaring off will be Danish TDC-owned Bite GSM and Peteris Smidre's consortium of SIA Alina and MVC Capital of the US. In a pre-auction announcement, TDC has thrown down the gauntlet to Tele2 by saying that if it wins, it will open its network to virtual operators (i.e. selling their own brand prepaid cards) from the very start. This means that any Latvian Bite (means bee) will first sting the biggest card-based operator on the market, which is Tele2. No surprise that Tele2 has been aggressively pursing corporate customers at the LMT end of the market. It is said to be close to a deal with Hansabanka, which so far has let its several hundred employees choose their own provider within the framework of a business call compensation deal. However, with telecoms expenses of around LVL 1 million per annum, Hansabanka may benefit from having all their mobiles services by one operator. The problem is, there is no official number portability until December 1, by which time the new operator will be up and running, with cdma 450 operator Triatel also making new moves as its network expands and it offers wireless DSL at 2.4 Mbps by the summer (so I am told).
It should be an interesting week. Sorry for not blogging more often, just lots of other stuff going on...
Thursday, March 17, 2005
Licence auction preselect, Huawei coming
The winners of the pre-selection for the March 31 auction of Latvia's third UMTS/GSM mobile licence were announced on March 15, and it was no surprise that Danish TDC owned Bite GSM and Peteris Smidre's consortium (SIA Alina and MVC Capital of the US) were the winners. There was a third, unnamed contender that failed the pre-select. According to some reports, the mysterious International Telecommunications and Technologies (IT&T) sent a letter asking the auction be extended yet again to April 26. The completely unknown consortium failed to file for pre-selection, apparently because of discord among its participants, who apparently are from Lebanon and elsewhere in the Middle East. This, in turn, may be related to political tensions in Lebanon.
The contenders now have to pay a deposit pf 30 % of the minimum bid of LVL 1.3 million by March 22 in order to go on to the auction on March 31.
My guess is that it will be a very hard fight, but the Danes may come out on top. They need the Latvian licence in order to have coverage in all three Baltic states -- Bite in Lithuania, ally Radiolinja in Estonia, and the third licence in Latvia. This will drive up the price, depending on how far Smidre and his US financial backers are willing to go in what is, for the financial side, essentially a venture capital project. MVC Capital, it is my guess, sees that Smidre has done it before, building up Baltcom GSM and then selling it to Tele2 for well over USD 200 million (a sum shared by all the owners, including Metromedia and Western Wireless). Of course, it is a different game now, the potential market for a new operator is small and difficult -- not many new potential users and 1.4 million existing users to be pried away from Latvian Mobile Telephone (LMT) and Tele2. If the new operator goes after LMT, it will have to present an extremely attractive package for the hitherto high revenue business user. If Tele2 is chosen as the main adversary, we will see what is essentially a "battle of the prepaid cards".
This will, in any case, have the effect desired by Minister of Transport Ainars Slesers of cutting mobile tariffs, but it does not present an easy or attractive business model for the newcomer.
HUAWEI coming?
Chinese telecoms infrastructure equipment maker Huawei is advertising for staff in the Baltics, most likely Latvia. While it has hitherto proven impossible to get an answer from Huawei headquarters in China (despite calls and e-mails to an English-speaking person as part of my day job), it is obvious that Huawei will set up some kind of operation here. There is at least EUR 150 million to be spend, in accordance with auction requirements, by whoever wins the third licence, Lattelekom is spending LVL 30 million to finish totally digitizing the whole country (wireless solutions are likely for the last 2 % who live in some corner of the forest or swamp), and Triatel is building up its cdma 450 network. There is no shortage of business to be had. Smidre, too, says he has been contacted by Huawei. Even if he doesn't win the third licence, his fixed line and optical internet services will need equipment upgrades.
Huawei is mentioned everywhere in the business press as a serious challenger to established western equipment suppliers and infrastructure builders such as Ericsson, Motorola and Nortel.
Latvian "friendster" blocked at workplaces
Draugiem.lv, a wholly-Latvian networking and socializing site inspired by Friendster in the US is getting increasingly blocked by workplaces in Latvia. This blogger's newspaper put a content filter on draugiem.lv (which now has more than 210 000 members), as did, reportedly, Hansabanka, the large, Swedish-owned Latvian bank. At the newspaper, the reason was that certain sales staff were staring at the friendship website all day.
Draugiem.lv is actually not all that exciting, little "happens" on it day to day, except when one's friends and friends-of-friends randomly change their thumbnail-sized photos. Also, draugiem.lv has proven to be a spam-free e-mail platform where anyone can be contacted by clicking through on a name rather than using an e-mail address and seperate program, The site has also launched a beta version of chat, something that can actively addict staff at a workplace (indeed, during a "chat craze" some years ago, it was obvious that the IT staff at many Latvian ministries and state institutions had little better to do).
Blogger sucks!
I have been busy and not so much has been happening, hence the sparse blogging for a couple of weeks. However, when I tried to get in all day yesterday, Google's www.blogger.com simply didn't work. This started at home on my Lattelekom DSL line, so it was not an overbroad application of whatever content blocker has been used by the newspaper.
The contenders now have to pay a deposit pf 30 % of the minimum bid of LVL 1.3 million by March 22 in order to go on to the auction on March 31.
My guess is that it will be a very hard fight, but the Danes may come out on top. They need the Latvian licence in order to have coverage in all three Baltic states -- Bite in Lithuania, ally Radiolinja in Estonia, and the third licence in Latvia. This will drive up the price, depending on how far Smidre and his US financial backers are willing to go in what is, for the financial side, essentially a venture capital project. MVC Capital, it is my guess, sees that Smidre has done it before, building up Baltcom GSM and then selling it to Tele2 for well over USD 200 million (a sum shared by all the owners, including Metromedia and Western Wireless). Of course, it is a different game now, the potential market for a new operator is small and difficult -- not many new potential users and 1.4 million existing users to be pried away from Latvian Mobile Telephone (LMT) and Tele2. If the new operator goes after LMT, it will have to present an extremely attractive package for the hitherto high revenue business user. If Tele2 is chosen as the main adversary, we will see what is essentially a "battle of the prepaid cards".
This will, in any case, have the effect desired by Minister of Transport Ainars Slesers of cutting mobile tariffs, but it does not present an easy or attractive business model for the newcomer.
HUAWEI coming?
Chinese telecoms infrastructure equipment maker Huawei is advertising for staff in the Baltics, most likely Latvia. While it has hitherto proven impossible to get an answer from Huawei headquarters in China (despite calls and e-mails to an English-speaking person as part of my day job), it is obvious that Huawei will set up some kind of operation here. There is at least EUR 150 million to be spend, in accordance with auction requirements, by whoever wins the third licence, Lattelekom is spending LVL 30 million to finish totally digitizing the whole country (wireless solutions are likely for the last 2 % who live in some corner of the forest or swamp), and Triatel is building up its cdma 450 network. There is no shortage of business to be had. Smidre, too, says he has been contacted by Huawei. Even if he doesn't win the third licence, his fixed line and optical internet services will need equipment upgrades.
Huawei is mentioned everywhere in the business press as a serious challenger to established western equipment suppliers and infrastructure builders such as Ericsson, Motorola and Nortel.
Latvian "friendster" blocked at workplaces
Draugiem.lv, a wholly-Latvian networking and socializing site inspired by Friendster in the US is getting increasingly blocked by workplaces in Latvia. This blogger's newspaper put a content filter on draugiem.lv (which now has more than 210 000 members), as did, reportedly, Hansabanka, the large, Swedish-owned Latvian bank. At the newspaper, the reason was that certain sales staff were staring at the friendship website all day.
Draugiem.lv is actually not all that exciting, little "happens" on it day to day, except when one's friends and friends-of-friends randomly change their thumbnail-sized photos. Also, draugiem.lv has proven to be a spam-free e-mail platform where anyone can be contacted by clicking through on a name rather than using an e-mail address and seperate program, The site has also launched a beta version of chat, something that can actively addict staff at a workplace (indeed, during a "chat craze" some years ago, it was obvious that the IT staff at many Latvian ministries and state institutions had little better to do).
Blogger sucks!
I have been busy and not so much has been happening, hence the sparse blogging for a couple of weeks. However, when I tried to get in all day yesterday, Google's www.blogger.com simply didn't work. This started at home on my Lattelekom DSL line, so it was not an overbroad application of whatever content blocker has been used by the newspaper.
Friday, March 04, 2005
Frequency weirdness threatens mobile operators
The Latvian Ministry of Transport has produced an apparently innocent looking document listing about 20 pieces of radio spectrum that it believes should be considered restricted access. Taken together with article 47 of the Electronic Communication Law, the document, if adopted as policy by the Cabinet of Ministers, would allow all restricted-use spectrum to be auctioned off once present user licences expire.
This could mean that all three Latvian operators – Tele2 and Latvian Mobile Telephone (LMT) on the GSM spectrum, and cdma450 operator Triatel – could have their spectrum useage rights subject to auction in the next couple of years. Triatel, which is just starting to build out its 3G network, could have its frequencies auctioned off as early as next year.
Triatel wrote a letter to the Public Utilities Regulatory Commission warning that the draft document (approved by a meeting of ministerial State Secretaries on February 10) effectively permitted "business theft" should a competitor or speculator win in the bidding and then demand (having paid a significant sum) that the spectrum rights be exclusive. The regulator filed a critical comment urging the document be redrafted allowing for a mechanism for incumbent frequency holders to extend their rights.
The authors of the draft document in the Communications Department of the Ministry of Transport say they had no choice but to word it in a manner that left it open to such interpretation. Indeed, one source close to the drafting process tipped off this blogger in a call describing what had been written as "madness".
Once the possibility that Latvia's GSM network could be disrupted (you can't operate without frequencies) made front-page news, the Ministry of Transport briefed this blogger (in his day job as a reporter) making it clear, yet again, that their intent was not to indirectly put the interests of 1.4 million mobile phone users on the auction block. Indeed, they, too, wanted to achieve an end-result where incumbents could extend their frequency useage rights, where unused frequencies would be auctioned to the highest bidder and where all players would start paying some kind of frequency use fees in accordance with Latvia's long term telecommunications policy principles.
At this point, it is unclear whether this can be done without amending the Electronic Communications Law. At the briefing, the Ministry and Communications Department officials stressed that there was no other way they could have drafted the frequency use document given the way the law is formulated. At the same time they were reluctant to amend the law yet again.
Some interesting observations after all this:
- there are still embarrassing loopholes in the way wireless telecommunications markets are managed in Latvia (the LVL 100 paid, wholly legally by the Triatel brand partners, for cdma 450 spectrum is one example).
-the low intensity conflict between the Ministry of Transport and the Regulator continues, with the latter being blamed for not timely objecting to the draft spectrum use memo (even though the Ministry claims there was no other way they could draft it). Another simmering issue is number resources, with the Regulator urging a rapid swith to eight digit numbers before a severe shortage (due to exploding mobile use and the third/fourth operator) hits. The Communications Department says these alarmist statements are exaggerated.
-an undercurrent of feeling in the Ministry that some mobile operators, such as Triatel, (who are these people, really? – asked one official), should be given a shaking because they, somehow, are dubious. As for the big incumbents, they are making too much money (there is some merit to this, LMT's profitability runs at around 30 % and it has the rec0rd for earnings of any Latvian company).
SOME REMARKS
I have been a little remiss in blogging because I have been recovering from a system crash on my Powerbook G4 which required a so-called clean install of MacOS X. All files burned to CD or an external drive, then recovered. I've also been feeling some kind of late winter lethargy, believe it ir not. The Swedes call it "spring fatigue" but at -19 C during the night in Riga, it's still the middle of the fucking winter as far as I am concerned.
This could mean that all three Latvian operators – Tele2 and Latvian Mobile Telephone (LMT) on the GSM spectrum, and cdma450 operator Triatel – could have their spectrum useage rights subject to auction in the next couple of years. Triatel, which is just starting to build out its 3G network, could have its frequencies auctioned off as early as next year.
Triatel wrote a letter to the Public Utilities Regulatory Commission warning that the draft document (approved by a meeting of ministerial State Secretaries on February 10) effectively permitted "business theft" should a competitor or speculator win in the bidding and then demand (having paid a significant sum) that the spectrum rights be exclusive. The regulator filed a critical comment urging the document be redrafted allowing for a mechanism for incumbent frequency holders to extend their rights.
The authors of the draft document in the Communications Department of the Ministry of Transport say they had no choice but to word it in a manner that left it open to such interpretation. Indeed, one source close to the drafting process tipped off this blogger in a call describing what had been written as "madness".
Once the possibility that Latvia's GSM network could be disrupted (you can't operate without frequencies) made front-page news, the Ministry of Transport briefed this blogger (in his day job as a reporter) making it clear, yet again, that their intent was not to indirectly put the interests of 1.4 million mobile phone users on the auction block. Indeed, they, too, wanted to achieve an end-result where incumbents could extend their frequency useage rights, where unused frequencies would be auctioned to the highest bidder and where all players would start paying some kind of frequency use fees in accordance with Latvia's long term telecommunications policy principles.
At this point, it is unclear whether this can be done without amending the Electronic Communications Law. At the briefing, the Ministry and Communications Department officials stressed that there was no other way they could have drafted the frequency use document given the way the law is formulated. At the same time they were reluctant to amend the law yet again.
Some interesting observations after all this:
- there are still embarrassing loopholes in the way wireless telecommunications markets are managed in Latvia (the LVL 100 paid, wholly legally by the Triatel brand partners, for cdma 450 spectrum is one example).
-the low intensity conflict between the Ministry of Transport and the Regulator continues, with the latter being blamed for not timely objecting to the draft spectrum use memo (even though the Ministry claims there was no other way they could draft it). Another simmering issue is number resources, with the Regulator urging a rapid swith to eight digit numbers before a severe shortage (due to exploding mobile use and the third/fourth operator) hits. The Communications Department says these alarmist statements are exaggerated.
-an undercurrent of feeling in the Ministry that some mobile operators, such as Triatel, (who are these people, really? – asked one official), should be given a shaking because they, somehow, are dubious. As for the big incumbents, they are making too much money (there is some merit to this, LMT's profitability runs at around 30 % and it has the rec0rd for earnings of any Latvian company).
SOME REMARKS
I have been a little remiss in blogging because I have been recovering from a system crash on my Powerbook G4 which required a so-called clean install of MacOS X. All files burned to CD or an external drive, then recovered. I've also been feeling some kind of late winter lethargy, believe it ir not. The Swedes call it "spring fatigue" but at -19 C during the night in Riga, it's still the middle of the fucking winter as far as I am concerned.
Saturday, February 26, 2005
At least two applicants for Latvia's auction pre-select
There are at least two applicants who filed for preselection for the March 31 auction of Latvia's third UMTS/GSM mobile operator licence. They are Danish TDC's Lithuanian subsidiary Bite GSM and a consortium consisting of telecoms entrepreneur Peteris Smidre's Alina and MVC Capital Inc., a US business development fund that last year invested USD 10.5 million into a Latvian car dealership. MVC started out as a dotcom era venture capital fund that almost burned out, but is now recovering under new top management and making relatively conservative investments in food processing, manufacturing, agricultural equipment and finance.
A big surprise was that the mysterious International Telecommunications & Technologies (IT&T) pulled out at the last minute, leaving its local representative, Edgars Zakrizevskis, fuming that he had wasted a year of his time and effort paving the way for the virtually unknown, partly Lebanese-based consortium. Zakrizevskis thinks the last minute retreat could have had something to do with the car bomb assassination of former Lebanese prime minister and billionaire Rafik Hariri. Another theory is that the whole IT&T thing was a scam to begin with. This blogger raised the scam issue early on, but then backpedaled a bit when it seemed there were real people behind IT&T. But then most con-men are real.
Guntis Macs, the high Ministry of Transport official who heads the auction commission hinted that there might be some other applicants not mentioned in the press previously. He is not at liberty to say anything to the press except that that applications have been filed, but not their number.
One "dark horse" could be China-based Huawei, who is advertising for an office manager in Latvia. Previously they have denied having anything going in Latvia. Huawei was also mentioned as a possible partner for IT&T. Perhaps they have joined with another unknown participant. Mainly a builder of infrastructure and telecoms equipment, Huawei is a rising star mentioned, for example, in Business Week in the same breath as Cisco.
The next critical date is around March 14 or perhaps March 22, when the names of those who have passed pre-selection involving a check of their business and investment plans by international auditors are announced.
A big surprise was that the mysterious International Telecommunications & Technologies (IT&T) pulled out at the last minute, leaving its local representative, Edgars Zakrizevskis, fuming that he had wasted a year of his time and effort paving the way for the virtually unknown, partly Lebanese-based consortium. Zakrizevskis thinks the last minute retreat could have had something to do with the car bomb assassination of former Lebanese prime minister and billionaire Rafik Hariri. Another theory is that the whole IT&T thing was a scam to begin with. This blogger raised the scam issue early on, but then backpedaled a bit when it seemed there were real people behind IT&T. But then most con-men are real.
Guntis Macs, the high Ministry of Transport official who heads the auction commission hinted that there might be some other applicants not mentioned in the press previously. He is not at liberty to say anything to the press except that that applications have been filed, but not their number.
One "dark horse" could be China-based Huawei, who is advertising for an office manager in Latvia. Previously they have denied having anything going in Latvia. Huawei was also mentioned as a possible partner for IT&T. Perhaps they have joined with another unknown participant. Mainly a builder of infrastructure and telecoms equipment, Huawei is a rising star mentioned, for example, in Business Week in the same breath as Cisco.
The next critical date is around March 14 or perhaps March 22, when the names of those who have passed pre-selection involving a check of their business and investment plans by international auditors are announced.
Wednesday, February 16, 2005
Lattelekom and Smidre both go down
Lattelekom announced it will implement a maximum 45 % cut in interconnect tariffs that was previously rejected by the Public Utilities Regulatory Commission (the regulator set a cieling of LVL 0.008 per minute that amounted to a 80 % cut from the highest rates hitherto). The cut is made possible by a court's suspension of the regulator's cieling. The long term goal of Lattelekom is to cut interconnect rates to the European average, which an EU study says was 0.59 eurocents in 2004.
Meanwhile, as this blogger predicted, the Ministry of Tranport has rejected telecom entrepreneur Peteris Smidre's call for a postponement of the third UMTS/GSM licence auction until interconnect issues are resolved. The Ministry wrote, among other things, that a postponement would only prolong the present situation with high tariffs for both interconnect and for services to consumers and businesses.
Meanwhile, as this blogger predicted, the Ministry of Tranport has rejected telecom entrepreneur Peteris Smidre's call for a postponement of the third UMTS/GSM licence auction until interconnect issues are resolved. The Ministry wrote, among other things, that a postponement would only prolong the present situation with high tariffs for both interconnect and for services to consumers and businesses.
Licence auction suspension will be rejected
The government will reject Latvian telecoms entrepreneur Peteris Smidre's appeal to suspend the third UMTS/GSM licence auction until issues concerning Lattelekom's interconnect rates are settled. A statement will be issued later today, February 16.
Smidre's letter to the government has, in fact, generated negative speculation about the true reasons for his appeal.
According to one version being discussed in government circles, Smidre is trying to delay the auction indefinitely because he has not gotten a committment from the American partner he hinted would join his personal company Alina in the bid. One reason for this could be the turmoil on the US mobile market, with mergers and aquisitions taking place from week to week. No one will pay much attention to an auction in a market that, at best, will yield as many customers as a mid-sized Midwestern city, say, around 200 000.
The other grounds for rejecting the appeal is that it effectively postpones the auction indefinitely, until Lattelekom and the Public Utilities Regulatory Commission finally adjudicate their dispute. Rumor has it that the case on the legality of the sharp cut in interconnect rates will be heard as early as March, but if it is appealed, the process could drag on for months or years. That would essentially kill any prospects for a third operator coming into Latvia (at least formally, by winning the licence auction) during 2005. In effect, it would defeat the government's efforts to get a "real" third operator (not counting Triatel, which honored its 1000 th customer today) into the Latvian mobile market.
It looks like Smidre's efforts will not only fail but may raise (perhaps unnecessary?) doubts about his own readiness to apply (in a consortium) for pre-selection on February 25.
Smidre's letter to the government has, in fact, generated negative speculation about the true reasons for his appeal.
According to one version being discussed in government circles, Smidre is trying to delay the auction indefinitely because he has not gotten a committment from the American partner he hinted would join his personal company Alina in the bid. One reason for this could be the turmoil on the US mobile market, with mergers and aquisitions taking place from week to week. No one will pay much attention to an auction in a market that, at best, will yield as many customers as a mid-sized Midwestern city, say, around 200 000.
The other grounds for rejecting the appeal is that it effectively postpones the auction indefinitely, until Lattelekom and the Public Utilities Regulatory Commission finally adjudicate their dispute. Rumor has it that the case on the legality of the sharp cut in interconnect rates will be heard as early as March, but if it is appealed, the process could drag on for months or years. That would essentially kill any prospects for a third operator coming into Latvia (at least formally, by winning the licence auction) during 2005. In effect, it would defeat the government's efforts to get a "real" third operator (not counting Triatel, which honored its 1000 th customer today) into the Latvian mobile market.
It looks like Smidre's efforts will not only fail but may raise (perhaps unnecessary?) doubts about his own readiness to apply (in a consortium) for pre-selection on February 25.
Tuesday, February 15, 2005
Smidre asks extension of licence auction deadline
Latvian telecoms entrepreneur Peteris Smidre has asked the government to delay the planned auction of a third UMTS/GSM mobile telephony licence until unresolved issues concerning the regulation of interconnect fees are settled. Smidre is planning to enter the contest through his private company Alina together with an unnamed American partner. Smidre also heads the Baltkom fixed telecommunications and cable-TV group.
The pre-selection deadline for the auction was already once postponed from December 21 to February 25 after the Latvian Telecommunications Association said the auction was being rushed.
Smidre's PR consultant Evija Ansonska told this blogger that Smidre intends to go ahead with a preselection application on or before February 25 if the government doesn't change its plans.
A dispute arose after the Public Utilities Regulatory Commission sharply slashed the interconnect fees that Lattelekom, the dominant and incumbent fixed network operator, could charge. Lattelekom appealed the decision, effective January 1, to the Administrative Court and won a suspension of implementation of the new lower tariffs. The regulator sued to invalidate the suspension, but lost.
It appears unlikely that the government will extend the auction deadlines yet again, especially since the final settlement of the dispute between Lattelekom and the regulator, if appealed at all possible levels, could take years. It is rumored that the appeal against the lower interconnect rates will be heard on the merit some time in March. Lattelekom is challenging both the way that the regulator calculated the new interconnect rate ceiling as well as the legality of any regulation of these rates per se.
The pre-selection deadline for the auction was already once postponed from December 21 to February 25 after the Latvian Telecommunications Association said the auction was being rushed.
Smidre's PR consultant Evija Ansonska told this blogger that Smidre intends to go ahead with a preselection application on or before February 25 if the government doesn't change its plans.
A dispute arose after the Public Utilities Regulatory Commission sharply slashed the interconnect fees that Lattelekom, the dominant and incumbent fixed network operator, could charge. Lattelekom appealed the decision, effective January 1, to the Administrative Court and won a suspension of implementation of the new lower tariffs. The regulator sued to invalidate the suspension, but lost.
It appears unlikely that the government will extend the auction deadlines yet again, especially since the final settlement of the dispute between Lattelekom and the regulator, if appealed at all possible levels, could take years. It is rumored that the appeal against the lower interconnect rates will be heard on the merit some time in March. Lattelekom is challenging both the way that the regulator calculated the new interconnect rate ceiling as well as the legality of any regulation of these rates per se.
Friday, February 11, 2005
Lattelekom - coming to a video screen this spring?
Lattelekom looks ready to launch IP TV services - at least experimentally- sometime later this spring. This blogger's sources say the company is shopping for, or perhaps has already bought some Ethernet DSL equipment needed to provide the kind of high-bandwidth connections that TV over IP, fast internet and voice over IP combinations services required.
"Look for an announcement after Easter (which falls at the end of March)" said one highly-placed informant.
By offering TV over DSL, Lattelekom would be fulfilling predictions made by its managing director Nils Melngailis and following in the footsteps of "half-mother" :) TeliaSonera which just announced IP TV services in Sweden. Lattelekom has already had one experimental videocast – a concert by Latvian popgroup Brainstorm late last year.
With Baltkom TV, Latvia's largest cable TV company pushing triple-play internet, voice and digital cable and hinting that video on demand may be one of its first interactive premium services, Lattelekom has to move into the game quickly. Certainly, the telecoms incumbent has a customer base of some 630 000, but at best it can hope to get a portion of its 40 000 broadband customers to upgrade to TV/video services.
Both companies will benefit from the fact that digital terrestrial TV is practically dead in the water here with no resolution in sight (the existing project was denounced as a fraud by the earlier government of Einars Repse and will be dragged through various courts for years, scaring off other potential partners). If we simply look at digital moving images (the old concepts TV, video, etc. are actually falling apart) as a product for the middle class with disposable income (and forget, for better or worse, the public service aspects of TV), then we can see the seeds of some business models for the telecoms sector.
Instead of broadcast programming (except for breaking news), the tendency will be toward self-programmed entertainment and information, anytime, anyplace, any platform. So there are synergies in having digital content that can be fed to PCs or ordinary TVs (though a wireless LAN adapter, even Bluetooth), played (and eventually recorded) to 3G phones, stored on Video iPod-type devices and the like.
Aside from making the technology work, a problem facing both Lattelekom and Baltkom will be making money from an initially small customer-base with high-cost quality content Baltkom's selection of old Russian movie channels, Ukrainian MTV or whatever, Russian dubbed Discovery Channels can go only so far as the audience becomes more sophisticated and wants to see better quality content in a variety of languages (digital already makes this possible). With Baltkom hinting it will offer video on demand in the second half of 2005, Lattelekom has to get a jump on what in this market sector is it's major competitor.
"Look for an announcement after Easter (which falls at the end of March)" said one highly-placed informant.
By offering TV over DSL, Lattelekom would be fulfilling predictions made by its managing director Nils Melngailis and following in the footsteps of "half-mother" :) TeliaSonera which just announced IP TV services in Sweden. Lattelekom has already had one experimental videocast – a concert by Latvian popgroup Brainstorm late last year.
With Baltkom TV, Latvia's largest cable TV company pushing triple-play internet, voice and digital cable and hinting that video on demand may be one of its first interactive premium services, Lattelekom has to move into the game quickly. Certainly, the telecoms incumbent has a customer base of some 630 000, but at best it can hope to get a portion of its 40 000 broadband customers to upgrade to TV/video services.
Both companies will benefit from the fact that digital terrestrial TV is practically dead in the water here with no resolution in sight (the existing project was denounced as a fraud by the earlier government of Einars Repse and will be dragged through various courts for years, scaring off other potential partners). If we simply look at digital moving images (the old concepts TV, video, etc. are actually falling apart) as a product for the middle class with disposable income (and forget, for better or worse, the public service aspects of TV), then we can see the seeds of some business models for the telecoms sector.
Instead of broadcast programming (except for breaking news), the tendency will be toward self-programmed entertainment and information, anytime, anyplace, any platform. So there are synergies in having digital content that can be fed to PCs or ordinary TVs (though a wireless LAN adapter, even Bluetooth), played (and eventually recorded) to 3G phones, stored on Video iPod-type devices and the like.
Aside from making the technology work, a problem facing both Lattelekom and Baltkom will be making money from an initially small customer-base with high-cost quality content Baltkom's selection of old Russian movie channels, Ukrainian MTV or whatever, Russian dubbed Discovery Channels can go only so far as the audience becomes more sophisticated and wants to see better quality content in a variety of languages (digital already makes this possible). With Baltkom hinting it will offer video on demand in the second half of 2005, Lattelekom has to get a jump on what in this market sector is it's major competitor.
Thursday, February 10, 2005
TCIL drops third licence bid after visa hassle
Telecommunications Consultants India Limited (TCIL) has dropped out of contention for Latvia's third GSM and UMTS mobile telephony licence, citing visa-related travel problems for its executives who wanted to visit Latvia in early January.
TCIL finance director Chandra Shekhar told this blogger that a TCIL delegation attempting to fly to Riga, Latvia on Aeroflot from New Delhi via Moscow was denied boarding because they did not have Latvian visas in their passports. It is a widely-accepted airline practice to check whether international passangers have valid travel documents to their final destinations, since they can be fined and/or required to undertake return transportation of persons not admitted to country.
Shekhar said that TCIL executives travel widely across the world and could not, as a practical matter, send their passports from India to London to be processed over several days by the Latvian Embassy there.
Guntis Macs, the head of the licence tender commission and a deputy state secretary in the Ministry of Transport, said that every effort had been made to facilitate the arrival of the TCIL executives. Apparently, there was a misunderstanding or failure to communicate to Aeroflot that the India citizens would be issue visas upon arrival at Riga airport.
Whatever the reason, TCIL's withdrawal leaves only three known likely applicants for the pre-selection deadline on February 1 -- Denmark's TDC through its Lithuanian subsidiary Bite GSM, Latvian telecoms enterepreneur Peteris Smidre through his company Alina (with a possible US partner) and the mysterious International Telecommunications and Technology (IT&T), a consortium apparently formed for the sole purpose of bidding for the Latvian licence. Yet another executive for a major international telecoms supplier, who spent several years in Lebanon (where IT&T purports to have one of its offices) told this blogger none of his Middle Eastern contacts had heard of the company.
A rumor circulating in Riga claims that IT&T may be a front for Russia's Vimpelcom, though it is unlikely that such a large Russian operator would need to come into Latvia under a "front organization". The rumor is perhaps illustrative of the suspicions and speculation generated by the secrecy and obscurity around IT&T.
TCIL finance director Chandra Shekhar told this blogger that a TCIL delegation attempting to fly to Riga, Latvia on Aeroflot from New Delhi via Moscow was denied boarding because they did not have Latvian visas in their passports. It is a widely-accepted airline practice to check whether international passangers have valid travel documents to their final destinations, since they can be fined and/or required to undertake return transportation of persons not admitted to country.
Shekhar said that TCIL executives travel widely across the world and could not, as a practical matter, send their passports from India to London to be processed over several days by the Latvian Embassy there.
Guntis Macs, the head of the licence tender commission and a deputy state secretary in the Ministry of Transport, said that every effort had been made to facilitate the arrival of the TCIL executives. Apparently, there was a misunderstanding or failure to communicate to Aeroflot that the India citizens would be issue visas upon arrival at Riga airport.
Whatever the reason, TCIL's withdrawal leaves only three known likely applicants for the pre-selection deadline on February 1 -- Denmark's TDC through its Lithuanian subsidiary Bite GSM, Latvian telecoms enterepreneur Peteris Smidre through his company Alina (with a possible US partner) and the mysterious International Telecommunications and Technology (IT&T), a consortium apparently formed for the sole purpose of bidding for the Latvian licence. Yet another executive for a major international telecoms supplier, who spent several years in Lebanon (where IT&T purports to have one of its offices) told this blogger none of his Middle Eastern contacts had heard of the company.
A rumor circulating in Riga claims that IT&T may be a front for Russia's Vimpelcom, though it is unlikely that such a large Russian operator would need to come into Latvia under a "front organization". The rumor is perhaps illustrative of the suspicions and speculation generated by the secrecy and obscurity around IT&T.
Wednesday, February 02, 2005
Interconnect battles - the Great Satan resurgent :) ?
Around 40 minutes into an angry press conference called by the Latvian Telecommunications Agency (LTA) on February 1, I remarked to the panel of speakers that "some of us have to hurry to another press conference by the Great Satan." This drew some smiles and giggles, as most of the small crowd of Latvian telecom & IT hacks was also heading for a briefing, coincidentally scheduled an hour later by the incumbent Lattelekom.
The events were sort of about the same issue. The LTA 's president and Baltcom board chairman Peteris Smidre and LTA managing director Janis Lelis launched both humorous and angry diatribes against an interim decision by Latvia's Administrative Court to suspend a ceiling of LVL 0.08 per minute on all interconnect charges imposed on Lattelekom by the Public Utilities Regulatory Board (hereafter, the regulator, as I keep varying the English translation for this outfit). The interim ruling, pending a full hearing of an appeal by Lattelekom on the merits, apparently put several alternative operators in Latvia in a bind -- they had already factored the up to 80% cut in interconnect charges (for national long distance connects) into new tariffs.
Smidre lambasted the decision as typical of a country that was "a circus with clowns" while Lelis, with uncharacteristic passion, called the interim ruling a "catastrophe" for the non-incumbent telecommunications industry in Latvia. He even went so far as to say that the suspension of the lower charges could torpedo the planned auction of Latvia's third UMTS and GSM licence (although the two incumbent operators, Latvian Mobile Telephone /LMT/ and Tele2, have prospered with the interconnect arrangements hitherto, which are different than for fixed line operators -- I think /?/). Smidre read parts of the court ruling, which I have not seen, and indicated that he thought the judge was a buffoon who blatantly sided with Lattelekom.
Inna Steinbuka, the chairman of the regulator was an invited guest to the LTA's panel. She called the ruling "an affront to the professionalism" of the regulator. Later in the day, the regulator said it was filing a pleading to (weird Latvian name - blakussudziba/ "side-pleading" ?) to overturn the suspension imposed by the Administrative Court. It also demanded that the court sit with a new panel of judges, excluding judge Kaspars Berkis (the man lambasted by Smidre).
Raimonds Bergmanis, director of the Ministry of Transport's Communications Department, the main telecoms policy unit, also sat in the LTA's panel and said the court ruling would not advance the national policy of fostering competition.
At its press conference, "the Great Satan" presented figures from an EU report showing that Latvian telecommunications charges tp consumers were low to moderate compared with the rest of the EU. The line subscription charge to households, in euro, was the lowest in the EU and other charges compared favorably. Lattelekom officials did admit, however, that interconnect charges were high for "historical reasons" and that for international fixed line calls, Lattelekom did not have the lowest prices on the Latvian market, though it could claim better coverage and quality.
So what is the battle about? Obviously, the alternative operators would like interconnect charges pushed lower. As Baltkom's Smidre said, the charges even when capped are still almost twice what the EU average is 1.14 eurocents instead of 0.59 eurocents. The issue of whether the cap of LVL 0.08 is correct, however, is an issue to be decided on the merits, and the real issue here is procedural. Should a disputed norm be applied when it has an immediate UNAVOIDABLE effect only on one party -- in this case, Lattelekom "The Great Satan" in the eyes of the alternative operators. Lattelekom was obliged to cut its interconnect rates from January 1. The alternative operators had a choice whether or not to risk cutting their tariffs accordingly, since it was, as the Latvian saying goes, like "amen in Church" that Lattelekom would appeal the regulator's action and that there could be procedural demands to suspend the disputed regulation until a hearing on the merits. The slashed interconnect rates by some accounts would have decreased Lattelekom's profits by 10%. Now some, like the LTA, say that Lattelekom's earnings are quasi-monopolistic, but that goes to the merits of the case, not the issue of whether a one sided (whether you like the side or not) impact should be delayed.
According to my informants, a court date for a hearing on the merits of Lattelekom's appeal against the regulator will be set for some time in March.
The events were sort of about the same issue. The LTA 's president and Baltcom board chairman Peteris Smidre and LTA managing director Janis Lelis launched both humorous and angry diatribes against an interim decision by Latvia's Administrative Court to suspend a ceiling of LVL 0.08 per minute on all interconnect charges imposed on Lattelekom by the Public Utilities Regulatory Board (hereafter, the regulator, as I keep varying the English translation for this outfit). The interim ruling, pending a full hearing of an appeal by Lattelekom on the merits, apparently put several alternative operators in Latvia in a bind -- they had already factored the up to 80% cut in interconnect charges (for national long distance connects) into new tariffs.
Smidre lambasted the decision as typical of a country that was "a circus with clowns" while Lelis, with uncharacteristic passion, called the interim ruling a "catastrophe" for the non-incumbent telecommunications industry in Latvia. He even went so far as to say that the suspension of the lower charges could torpedo the planned auction of Latvia's third UMTS and GSM licence (although the two incumbent operators, Latvian Mobile Telephone /LMT/ and Tele2, have prospered with the interconnect arrangements hitherto, which are different than for fixed line operators -- I think /?/). Smidre read parts of the court ruling, which I have not seen, and indicated that he thought the judge was a buffoon who blatantly sided with Lattelekom.
Inna Steinbuka, the chairman of the regulator was an invited guest to the LTA's panel. She called the ruling "an affront to the professionalism" of the regulator. Later in the day, the regulator said it was filing a pleading to (weird Latvian name - blakussudziba/ "side-pleading" ?) to overturn the suspension imposed by the Administrative Court. It also demanded that the court sit with a new panel of judges, excluding judge Kaspars Berkis (the man lambasted by Smidre).
Raimonds Bergmanis, director of the Ministry of Transport's Communications Department, the main telecoms policy unit, also sat in the LTA's panel and said the court ruling would not advance the national policy of fostering competition.
At its press conference, "the Great Satan" presented figures from an EU report showing that Latvian telecommunications charges tp consumers were low to moderate compared with the rest of the EU. The line subscription charge to households, in euro, was the lowest in the EU and other charges compared favorably. Lattelekom officials did admit, however, that interconnect charges were high for "historical reasons" and that for international fixed line calls, Lattelekom did not have the lowest prices on the Latvian market, though it could claim better coverage and quality.
So what is the battle about? Obviously, the alternative operators would like interconnect charges pushed lower. As Baltkom's Smidre said, the charges even when capped are still almost twice what the EU average is 1.14 eurocents instead of 0.59 eurocents. The issue of whether the cap of LVL 0.08 is correct, however, is an issue to be decided on the merits, and the real issue here is procedural. Should a disputed norm be applied when it has an immediate UNAVOIDABLE effect only on one party -- in this case, Lattelekom "The Great Satan" in the eyes of the alternative operators. Lattelekom was obliged to cut its interconnect rates from January 1. The alternative operators had a choice whether or not to risk cutting their tariffs accordingly, since it was, as the Latvian saying goes, like "amen in Church" that Lattelekom would appeal the regulator's action and that there could be procedural demands to suspend the disputed regulation until a hearing on the merits. The slashed interconnect rates by some accounts would have decreased Lattelekom's profits by 10%. Now some, like the LTA, say that Lattelekom's earnings are quasi-monopolistic, but that goes to the merits of the case, not the issue of whether a one sided (whether you like the side or not) impact should be delayed.
According to my informants, a court date for a hearing on the merits of Lattelekom's appeal against the regulator will be set for some time in March.
Tuesday, February 01, 2005
Lattelekom - look what mom's doing!
TeliaSonera, Lattelekom's half-mother (I love mistranslating these foreign terms for parent company :) ), is starting IP television services in Sweden as part of a triple-play offering, according to the Swedish business newspaper Dagens industri.
The paper says that this puts TeliaSonera in direct competition with ComHem, the cable TV company it was forced to sell as part of the Telia and Sonera merger a couple of years back. The former Swedish monopoly will be able to reach 70 - 80 % of Swedish households via its copper wire network, since the TV will be pumped down DSL lines where speeds of 8 Mbps are not uncommon (I saw this in action when visiting my "middle son" who lives outside Stockholm and turned 18 over the weekend).
Baltkom TV offers a triple play package in Latvia (the uptake so far is only around 350 users) using its optical cable, but the TV here is delivered as a DVB signal over cable, whereas IP TV, I think, is another technical solution. At the end of the wire, if the user gets good picture (and the IP TV can be routed to an ordinary TV set), it really doesn't matter.
Nils Melngailis, the managing director of Lattelekom, has been hinting at a move into TV services. Now that TeliaSonera is doing it, it may be time to crystallize these visions. It may require an upgrade of the household DSL offering from a miserly 256 kbps (2 Mbps for some domestic network level services, like Apollo Internet's video on demand for various short films). Now that mom's doing it, it is time for the kids (half-kids, TeliaSonera holds 49 % of Lattelekom) to start getting into the act.
More sobering news for Nils -- The Economist writes this week that WiMax, another technology that Lattelekom has been talking about, to put it simply, isn't. According to the weekly magazine, there is "zero" WiMax equipment on the market. Depends on what you call WiMax, though, since some Swedish town recently set up an experimental network and it was reported Argentina was setting up a WiMax network.
Meanwhile, DI also reports a brouhaha in Sweden about whether cdma450 might be a cheaper 3G technology to give coverage to the vast wooded wastelands of our Nordic neighbor than UMTS, which requires loads of towers and base stations. Ericsson's research head Håkan Eriksson thinks even cdma450 would be a waste of money to get wireless broadband to the reindeer, but Jan Freese of Nordisk Mobiltelefon thinks it's a great idea.
Meanwhile, Latvia's cdma450 operator Triatel is apparently chugging along, though there are rumors of some kind of management reshuffles.
INTERCONNECT UPROAR
A court has suspended implementation of the Public Utilities' Commission's ruling that Lattelekom has to cut its interconnect charges to a maximum of LVL 0.088 per minute
pending a full hearing on the merits, leading to an uproar by smaller operators who had adjusted their domestic rates to reflect the changes now challenged by the incumbent.
Gotta run now to a press conference where the Latvian Telecommunications Association will have its say, followed by Lattelekom an hour later. Jogging on the snowy streets of Riga. Hope to get around to blogging what comes of these events.
The paper says that this puts TeliaSonera in direct competition with ComHem, the cable TV company it was forced to sell as part of the Telia and Sonera merger a couple of years back. The former Swedish monopoly will be able to reach 70 - 80 % of Swedish households via its copper wire network, since the TV will be pumped down DSL lines where speeds of 8 Mbps are not uncommon (I saw this in action when visiting my "middle son" who lives outside Stockholm and turned 18 over the weekend).
Baltkom TV offers a triple play package in Latvia (the uptake so far is only around 350 users) using its optical cable, but the TV here is delivered as a DVB signal over cable, whereas IP TV, I think, is another technical solution. At the end of the wire, if the user gets good picture (and the IP TV can be routed to an ordinary TV set), it really doesn't matter.
Nils Melngailis, the managing director of Lattelekom, has been hinting at a move into TV services. Now that TeliaSonera is doing it, it may be time to crystallize these visions. It may require an upgrade of the household DSL offering from a miserly 256 kbps (2 Mbps for some domestic network level services, like Apollo Internet's video on demand for various short films). Now that mom's doing it, it is time for the kids (half-kids, TeliaSonera holds 49 % of Lattelekom) to start getting into the act.
More sobering news for Nils -- The Economist writes this week that WiMax, another technology that Lattelekom has been talking about, to put it simply, isn't. According to the weekly magazine, there is "zero" WiMax equipment on the market. Depends on what you call WiMax, though, since some Swedish town recently set up an experimental network and it was reported Argentina was setting up a WiMax network.
Meanwhile, DI also reports a brouhaha in Sweden about whether cdma450 might be a cheaper 3G technology to give coverage to the vast wooded wastelands of our Nordic neighbor than UMTS, which requires loads of towers and base stations. Ericsson's research head Håkan Eriksson thinks even cdma450 would be a waste of money to get wireless broadband to the reindeer, but Jan Freese of Nordisk Mobiltelefon thinks it's a great idea.
Meanwhile, Latvia's cdma450 operator Triatel is apparently chugging along, though there are rumors of some kind of management reshuffles.
INTERCONNECT UPROAR
A court has suspended implementation of the Public Utilities' Commission's ruling that Lattelekom has to cut its interconnect charges to a maximum of LVL 0.088 per minute
pending a full hearing on the merits, leading to an uproar by smaller operators who had adjusted their domestic rates to reflect the changes now challenged by the incumbent.
Gotta run now to a press conference where the Latvian Telecommunications Association will have its say, followed by Lattelekom an hour later. Jogging on the snowy streets of Riga. Hope to get around to blogging what comes of these events.
Thursday, January 27, 2005
US companies may back Latvia licence bid
Latvian entrepreneur Peteris Smidre may bring in two US companies – an investment fund and a mobile operator – as partners in a bid by his private firm Alina for Latvia's third UMTS/GSM licence. Smidre mentioned this in a casual conversation after talking to reporters about the operations of Baltcom, the cable TV, internet and fixed network telephony company where he is chairman of the board.
Smidre didn't say who his American partners were, noting that negotiations were incomplete ahead of the February 25 deadline for applying for pre-selection in the auction. The investment fund would provide much of the financing for the project, where the Latvian government has insisted that the successful bidder invest at least EUR 150 million in a new network and submit a detailed investment business plan as part of the pre-selection. The unnamed American operator would, most likely, assist with equipment purchasing and provide an easier entre into roaming contracts (perhaps tacking the new Latvian entity onto existing arrangements).
There now appear to be at least three more or less serious bidders for the licence at a starting price of LVL 1.3 million – in addition to Alina's consortium, the little-known International Telecommuncations and Technologies (IT&T) and Denmark's TDC (though its Lithuanian subsidiary Bite GSM). India's TCIL was to send a delegation to Latvia between January 9 - 15, but this visit was suddenly cancelled without explanation.
TDC may well have the highest stakes in getting the licence in order to cover all three Baltic countries.
Smidre also said to this blogger that Baltcom Fiber, the company formed when he bought the partly-stranded (but physically completed) optical cable stretching from Sweden's Gotland island to Ventspils, Latvia, was now supplying international capacity for Baltcom Telefonsakari, the tandem of subsidiaries serving some 9000 corporate and 1500 household customers. The telecoms entrepreneur, who started Baltcom GSM (now Tele2) in the late 1990s together with Metromedia and Western Wireless of the US, said Baltcom Fiber was cautious about entering the corporate data transmission market. This could lead to a destructive price war, Smidre said, noting that there was excessive capacity under and around the Baltic (with cables owned by Telia International Carrier and Lattelekom/Tele2, as well as links through Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania) but relatively few large corporate customers.
Meanwhile, we also learned that Baltcom's "triple play" packages combining internet, digital cable TV and telephony have only been sold to around 350 customers. This figure is expected to rise during the year as the telephone offering becomes more competitive due to sharp cuts in Lattelekom's interconnect fees ordered by Latvia's Public Utilities Regulatory Commission.
Smidre didn't say who his American partners were, noting that negotiations were incomplete ahead of the February 25 deadline for applying for pre-selection in the auction. The investment fund would provide much of the financing for the project, where the Latvian government has insisted that the successful bidder invest at least EUR 150 million in a new network and submit a detailed investment business plan as part of the pre-selection. The unnamed American operator would, most likely, assist with equipment purchasing and provide an easier entre into roaming contracts (perhaps tacking the new Latvian entity onto existing arrangements).
There now appear to be at least three more or less serious bidders for the licence at a starting price of LVL 1.3 million – in addition to Alina's consortium, the little-known International Telecommuncations and Technologies (IT&T) and Denmark's TDC (though its Lithuanian subsidiary Bite GSM). India's TCIL was to send a delegation to Latvia between January 9 - 15, but this visit was suddenly cancelled without explanation.
TDC may well have the highest stakes in getting the licence in order to cover all three Baltic countries.
Smidre also said to this blogger that Baltcom Fiber, the company formed when he bought the partly-stranded (but physically completed) optical cable stretching from Sweden's Gotland island to Ventspils, Latvia, was now supplying international capacity for Baltcom Telefonsakari, the tandem of subsidiaries serving some 9000 corporate and 1500 household customers. The telecoms entrepreneur, who started Baltcom GSM (now Tele2) in the late 1990s together with Metromedia and Western Wireless of the US, said Baltcom Fiber was cautious about entering the corporate data transmission market. This could lead to a destructive price war, Smidre said, noting that there was excessive capacity under and around the Baltic (with cables owned by Telia International Carrier and Lattelekom/Tele2, as well as links through Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania) but relatively few large corporate customers.
Meanwhile, we also learned that Baltcom's "triple play" packages combining internet, digital cable TV and telephony have only been sold to around 350 customers. This figure is expected to rise during the year as the telephone offering becomes more competitive due to sharp cuts in Lattelekom's interconnect fees ordered by Latvia's Public Utilities Regulatory Commission.
Tuesday, January 25, 2005
Latvian PM to Microsoft: Come hither...
Latvia's Prime Minister Aigars Kalvitis will be asking Microsoft chairman and chief software architect Bill Gates to consider setting up a development operation in Latvia, sources told this blogger.
Kalvitis will meet Gates on February 2 at an inivitation only Microsoft Executive Summit in Prague.
According to Edvins Karnitis, a Latvian IT specialist who often advises the government, the proposal will be for developing a specific set of technologies in which the Latvian IT sector has considerable experience.
Karnitis told this blogger (who was doing his day newspaper job) what the specific field was, but later asked that it be kept confidential until later in the week. I went along, though I hardly think the Lithuanians, Estonians or Czechs read Dienas bizness (www.db.lv) with any regularity. In any case, such information is more likely to leak through an English language platform now that I seem to have hundreds more readers/undocumented searchbots that before. So, later...
Another area where Latvia may try to entice Gates to invest, or rather, put some of his charitable donations, could be in vaccines. The Latvian pharmaceuticals and biologicals industries could make some generic vaccines (don't remember the exact list of pestilences that Gates the philanthropher is fighting) with funding by Gates' charities.
Kalvitis will meet Gates on February 2 at an inivitation only Microsoft Executive Summit in Prague.
According to Edvins Karnitis, a Latvian IT specialist who often advises the government, the proposal will be for developing a specific set of technologies in which the Latvian IT sector has considerable experience.
Karnitis told this blogger (who was doing his day newspaper job) what the specific field was, but later asked that it be kept confidential until later in the week. I went along, though I hardly think the Lithuanians, Estonians or Czechs read Dienas bizness (www.db.lv) with any regularity. In any case, such information is more likely to leak through an English language platform now that I seem to have hundreds more readers/undocumented searchbots that before. So, later...
Another area where Latvia may try to entice Gates to invest, or rather, put some of his charitable donations, could be in vaccines. The Latvian pharmaceuticals and biologicals industries could make some generic vaccines (don't remember the exact list of pestilences that Gates the philanthropher is fighting) with funding by Gates' charities.
Monday, January 24, 2005
Why all the attention? :)
I have one of these Adsense counters monitoring this blog, and last week, like a seismograph recording a 9.0 Richter (compared to my baseline of clicks), people seem to have gone apeshit for little 'ol Telecoms in Latvia.
There could be a couple of reasons for this. One is that there are new searchbots out their and their visits haven't been filtered out yet.
The other is that there was something really interesting. Don't know what it could have been? The Man in the Middle thing? Nobody's confirmed it yet, plus, internationally, this is nothing new. It's just phishing where, thanks to the miracles of technology, you can watch the bait being taken and swallowed in real time and ram it down your victim's throat. At least I think that's how it works.
Another theory is that Coolynx, the author of the demolished www.pods.lv Latvian geek and cyberhead website, linked to the Man in the Middle article and all of his followers paid a visit. Pod.lv now is at the Berlin 1947 stage. The rubble has been removed and a skeleton of buildings is reappearing. I still can't forgive myself for not noticing how he got wiped out in November, for fuck's sake. But I guess I had no interest in reading stuff about how to install the RatBat Version 0.875 (nor did I have any idea what you do with the RatBat 0.875 once it runs), which was sort of the daily bread of the website, although it often had some inside stuff about what was going on in the Latvian IT scene, like the infamous pilfering of a school pupil database some year or two ago.
Also, I write this on a Powerbook G4 with Mac OS 10.37 or something, and most of the Pods.lv discussions are for the Linux/Wintel world. In fact, one of the more bizarre reasons cited for breaking the pot (pods is pot in Latvian) was that Coolynx was considered too much of a Linux wise-ass. Tell that to the childrens' site www.calis.lv or the town of Mālpils, whose websites went down when the server with pods.lv on it was whacked. Interestingly, they never got inside of pods, so, like with a guy who has put steel doors and alarms on his apartment, they took down the whole building with the cyber version of a laser-guided 1000 kg bomb.
Whatever the reason, please do keep visiting and do visit the new pods rising from the ashes, if you read Latvian.
There could be a couple of reasons for this. One is that there are new searchbots out their and their visits haven't been filtered out yet.
The other is that there was something really interesting. Don't know what it could have been? The Man in the Middle thing? Nobody's confirmed it yet, plus, internationally, this is nothing new. It's just phishing where, thanks to the miracles of technology, you can watch the bait being taken and swallowed in real time and ram it down your victim's throat. At least I think that's how it works.
Another theory is that Coolynx, the author of the demolished www.pods.lv Latvian geek and cyberhead website, linked to the Man in the Middle article and all of his followers paid a visit. Pod.lv now is at the Berlin 1947 stage. The rubble has been removed and a skeleton of buildings is reappearing. I still can't forgive myself for not noticing how he got wiped out in November, for fuck's sake. But I guess I had no interest in reading stuff about how to install the RatBat Version 0.875 (nor did I have any idea what you do with the RatBat 0.875 once it runs), which was sort of the daily bread of the website, although it often had some inside stuff about what was going on in the Latvian IT scene, like the infamous pilfering of a school pupil database some year or two ago.
Also, I write this on a Powerbook G4 with Mac OS 10.37 or something, and most of the Pods.lv discussions are for the Linux/Wintel world. In fact, one of the more bizarre reasons cited for breaking the pot (pods is pot in Latvian) was that Coolynx was considered too much of a Linux wise-ass. Tell that to the childrens' site www.calis.lv or the town of Mālpils, whose websites went down when the server with pods.lv on it was whacked. Interestingly, they never got inside of pods, so, like with a guy who has put steel doors and alarms on his apartment, they took down the whole building with the cyber version of a laser-guided 1000 kg bomb.
Whatever the reason, please do keep visiting and do visit the new pods rising from the ashes, if you read Latvian.
Thursday, January 20, 2005
Police know nothing of alleged bank scam
The Economic Police in Latvia have not received any formal complaint nor have they arrested anyone in connection with an alleged "man in the middle" scam involving a Latvian bank and a Latvian ISP reported on this blog. That doesn't mean that sort of stuff isn't happening.
Just to be clear-- in this scheme, it is the ISP and infrastructure along the way to the bank's website that is compromised.
I will continue to look into this with my confidential sources. As one source said: the issue needs to be publicized.
Some people are connecting this to a bizarre incident where an e-mail warning of phishing under the guise of Latvia's Hansabanka (part of a Swedish-owned banking group) was circulated, but then Hansabanka denied that any such threat had been spotted. Might have given some people ideas, however.
Man-in-the-middle (well, to be fair, hackergrrls can do this too :) ) is, of course, more sophisticated than phishing and requires some work, although the tools are out there, scattered on the internet.
Just to be clear-- in this scheme, it is the ISP and infrastructure along the way to the bank's website that is compromised.
I will continue to look into this with my confidential sources. As one source said: the issue needs to be publicized.
Some people are connecting this to a bizarre incident where an e-mail warning of phishing under the guise of Latvia's Hansabanka (part of a Swedish-owned banking group) was circulated, but then Hansabanka denied that any such threat had been spotted. Might have given some people ideas, however.
Man-in-the-middle (well, to be fair, hackergrrls can do this too :) ) is, of course, more sophisticated than phishing and requires some work, although the tools are out there, scattered on the internet.
Wednesday, January 19, 2005
"Man in the Middle" reported busted in Latvia
My sources tell me that someone pulled a "man in the middle" hack on a Latvian bank and an internet service provider, but got burned for it. Awaiting confirmation from the Economic Police that they have someone under arrest.
The «man in the middle» works as follows:
The hacker uses a nasty tool (CAIN or something like that) to corrupt the address resources of an internet service provider. He puts up a clone of a popular internet banking homepage.
The innocent internet bank customer starts to log on to his bank and thinks all is well, since he gets a secure SSL link, not to his bank, but the clone.
As soon as he starts to log on the clone, where the malevolent hacker sees the customer's information «in the clear», the hacker uses it to log onto the real internet banking page. When, as at some Latvian internet banks, the real bank site asks for a code on a preprinted card at random (please enter code 6). The hacker passes it on to the unwitting customer, who provides the code, allowing the hacker to log on to the real bank account and start stealing.
The hacker had apparently been a pest to the ISP for a long time, and now, with a serious crime committed or at least attempted, both the ISP and the bank are glad to have him/her put away.
Apparently, this rather sophisticated type of cybercrime has occurred elsewhere around the world, including Estonia. No bank is likely to confirm that it has been victimized. Nor is an ISP likely to put out a proud press release on how it was hacked.
The «man in the middle» works as follows:
The hacker uses a nasty tool (CAIN or something like that) to corrupt the address resources of an internet service provider. He puts up a clone of a popular internet banking homepage.
The innocent internet bank customer starts to log on to his bank and thinks all is well, since he gets a secure SSL link, not to his bank, but the clone.
As soon as he starts to log on the clone, where the malevolent hacker sees the customer's information «in the clear», the hacker uses it to log onto the real internet banking page. When, as at some Latvian internet banks, the real bank site asks for a code on a preprinted card at random (please enter code 6). The hacker passes it on to the unwitting customer, who provides the code, allowing the hacker to log on to the real bank account and start stealing.
The hacker had apparently been a pest to the ISP for a long time, and now, with a serious crime committed or at least attempted, both the ISP and the bank are glad to have him/her put away.
Apparently, this rather sophisticated type of cybercrime has occurred elsewhere around the world, including Estonia. No bank is likely to confirm that it has been victimized. Nor is an ISP likely to put out a proud press release on how it was hacked.
Sunday, January 16, 2005
A belated report of near-death
You sometime read about people who want to look up a seldom visited distant relative or aquaintence only to find that the person in question has been dead for XX (fill in the blank) weeks, months or years. I think the record may be held in efficient welfare Sweden, where social workers found (in the 90s), a skeleton sitting at a 10-year old breakfast with a 1986 newspaper. Nobody noticed the poor geezer was gone, money went to his account automatically and the rent was paid (including electricity).
Well, the same has just happened with a lively and informative (for those who knew what was being talked about) Latvian language IT blog or quasi-blog, www.pods.lv. Seems that some envious folks disliked the editor (nick: coolynx). Apparently some teeny-hackers, trying to get at coolynx, whacked the whole server, taking out a number of hosted sites and more or less wrecking www.pods.lv to this very day.
As someone who did look at pods (in Latvian, and very technical, sometimes) just to feel the buzz of what was going on among the sysops and people in the business, I am ashamed to say that its near-destruction passed me by, as well as a couple of other people at my day job paper who used to monitor it. We never noticed! All this seems to have happened in November. Forgive us, who slept!
BTW: pods is back, a pale shadow of itself, as the whole site and its files were apparently totally erased. Don't know if it will ever come back to life. It had extensive files, archives on various esoterica (for us laypersons) on linux, tools, software tricks, etc, and long and passionate discussions of these in Latvian.
Well, the same has just happened with a lively and informative (for those who knew what was being talked about) Latvian language IT blog or quasi-blog, www.pods.lv. Seems that some envious folks disliked the editor (nick: coolynx). Apparently some teeny-hackers, trying to get at coolynx, whacked the whole server, taking out a number of hosted sites and more or less wrecking www.pods.lv to this very day.
As someone who did look at pods (in Latvian, and very technical, sometimes) just to feel the buzz of what was going on among the sysops and people in the business, I am ashamed to say that its near-destruction passed me by, as well as a couple of other people at my day job paper who used to monitor it. We never noticed! All this seems to have happened in November. Forgive us, who slept!
BTW: pods is back, a pale shadow of itself, as the whole site and its files were apparently totally erased. Don't know if it will ever come back to life. It had extensive files, archives on various esoterica (for us laypersons) on linux, tools, software tricks, etc, and long and passionate discussions of these in Latvian.
Wednesday, January 12, 2005
Various happenings
One should not blog for the sake of blogging, and nothing much has happened for the past week, until a few days ago.
Latvia was hit by a very powerful storm, a hurricane by American standards, or perhaps a Baltic typhoon on January 9- 10. It knocked out much of both mobile phone networks, which is no surprise, since what was actually knocked out was the electricity grid. The base stations on reserve power then faithfully worked on until the batteries ran out. Few actual base stations were blown down in the wind – these and the towers they are mounted on are pretty robust. There is one rumor that Latvian Mobile Telephone (LMT) lost a station when the roof it was standing on blew away. Now if this was a roofing industry blog, I could have a lot to say about all the new shiny tin or ceramic shingle roofs that were "relocated" by the storms to places like neighboring fields, nearby trees, on top of someone's car, etc.
Both LMT and Tele2 had restored service in Latvia's approximately 26 regional center cities and towns using portable generators. As the electricity (most of it cut by millions of fallen trees) is restored, so too do the mobiles come back to life. Lattelekom's fixed network lost service to less than 5 % of its customers at the height of the storm, reserve power was available to most of its switches affected by the failure of Latvenergo's power.
There is now all kinds of talk about how municipalities should buy backup generators (they cost upwards of USD 20 000 apiece) for the next "worst storm in 40 years". So 40 years from now, they can dust off the museum piece and wonder what it was for, since the whole town may be running on a smart network of household fuel cells connected by buried cables.
The Latvian authorities should. however, consider buying a number of satellite phones, perhaps a few to each regional center, should there be another failure of the mobile networks for whatever reason. Even if the fixed network stays up and running, the portable satellite phones are useful for moving around and reporting on the situation on the ground in case of an emergency. Satellite communications worked from places wiped off the face of the earth by the tsunami, they should suffice if the world gets cut off from Moss Village (Sūnuciems to my Latvian readers) by a falling pine tree.
The Indians don't show up
Two representatives of third mobile licence contender Telecommunications Consultants India Limited (TCIL) who were scheduled to visit Latvia January 9 -15 cancelled at the last minute. Unforeseeable and unavoidable circumstances were cited. No new dates have been set. The deadline for pre-application for the auction of the third UMTS/GSM licence, with a starting price of LVL 1.3 million is February 25.
No one is attaching any special significance to the cancellation, this blogger was unable to get in touch with the person at TCIL said to be in charge of the Latvia project. Probably, the reasons must be taken at face value – something in in India or perhaps a flight cancellation in anticipation of the hurricane.
Latvia was hit by a very powerful storm, a hurricane by American standards, or perhaps a Baltic typhoon on January 9- 10. It knocked out much of both mobile phone networks, which is no surprise, since what was actually knocked out was the electricity grid. The base stations on reserve power then faithfully worked on until the batteries ran out. Few actual base stations were blown down in the wind – these and the towers they are mounted on are pretty robust. There is one rumor that Latvian Mobile Telephone (LMT) lost a station when the roof it was standing on blew away. Now if this was a roofing industry blog, I could have a lot to say about all the new shiny tin or ceramic shingle roofs that were "relocated" by the storms to places like neighboring fields, nearby trees, on top of someone's car, etc.
Both LMT and Tele2 had restored service in Latvia's approximately 26 regional center cities and towns using portable generators. As the electricity (most of it cut by millions of fallen trees) is restored, so too do the mobiles come back to life. Lattelekom's fixed network lost service to less than 5 % of its customers at the height of the storm, reserve power was available to most of its switches affected by the failure of Latvenergo's power.
There is now all kinds of talk about how municipalities should buy backup generators (they cost upwards of USD 20 000 apiece) for the next "worst storm in 40 years". So 40 years from now, they can dust off the museum piece and wonder what it was for, since the whole town may be running on a smart network of household fuel cells connected by buried cables.
The Latvian authorities should. however, consider buying a number of satellite phones, perhaps a few to each regional center, should there be another failure of the mobile networks for whatever reason. Even if the fixed network stays up and running, the portable satellite phones are useful for moving around and reporting on the situation on the ground in case of an emergency. Satellite communications worked from places wiped off the face of the earth by the tsunami, they should suffice if the world gets cut off from Moss Village (Sūnuciems to my Latvian readers) by a falling pine tree.
The Indians don't show up
Two representatives of third mobile licence contender Telecommunications Consultants India Limited (TCIL) who were scheduled to visit Latvia January 9 -15 cancelled at the last minute. Unforeseeable and unavoidable circumstances were cited. No new dates have been set. The deadline for pre-application for the auction of the third UMTS/GSM licence, with a starting price of LVL 1.3 million is February 25.
No one is attaching any special significance to the cancellation, this blogger was unable to get in touch with the person at TCIL said to be in charge of the Latvia project. Probably, the reasons must be taken at face value – something in in India or perhaps a flight cancellation in anticipation of the hurricane.
Monday, January 03, 2005
Looking forward to 2005
Well, the New Year has started and a few things may be happening in Latvian Telecoms. Later today (January 3), Lattelekom will issue a statement on its response to the Public Utilities Regulatory Board setting an interconnect tariff ceiling of LVL 0.008 (thats 0.8 santims) per minute for the incumbent. For the moment, Lattelekom is prepared to comply, although, contrary to gleeful comment from the Latvian Telecommunications Association, it will be a couple of months before any alternative operators feel the lower tariffs in their expense outlays. The fact is that interconnect accounts (in Latvia, probably elsewhere, too) are kept in traffic minutes. These are then tallied by both interconnect partners, and then a bill is sent for the agreed figure. This means that January traffic will be tallied and billed in March. Also, there is probably a set off (Operator X used 125 000 minutes of Lattelekom network time, Lattelekom used, say 25 000 minutes of X's network time).
Representatives of Telecommunications Consulting of India Ltd (TCIL), a contender for the "third" GSM and UMTS licence auction were supposed to be coming to Latvia in January. One wonders whether the tsunami disaster could have affected these plans, although TCIL is headquartered in Delhi, far from the seacoast. We may also see Denmark's TDC (through Bite GSM) clarify its position on the auction.
As I see it, TCIL is at least a known and experienced contender trying to break into a new market, while TDC needs a Latvian licence to complete its presence in all three Baltic states and be able to compete with TeliaSonera's subsidiaries in the mobile market. My guess is that these two could be serious bidders.
Meanwhile, I have received some feelers from still-mysterious International Telecommunications and Technologies (IT&T) to perhaps meet with their executives and be informed of who really stands behind this consortium (which shows up on no one's radar). It depends on whether my day job newspaper will agree to me going to either London or Beirut at IT&T's expense. A bit dodgy, but interesting. No one else is likely to get the story. I keep hearing that HuaWei, the Chinese telecoms infrastructure builder, is one of the technology partners behind IT&T, although there is no confirmation of this. HuaWei is also trying to break into the European market, they just did some kind of deal in the Netherlands.
It will be interesting to look at Triatel's figures for mobile CDMA-450 use in a couple of months. This will be a test of 3G services (fast data, mostly) takeup. If Triatel gets off the ground, it may inspire Latvian Mobile Telephone (LMT) and Tele2 to move beyond their own buildings in building out their UMTS networks. Triatel looked pretty optimistic when it upped the number of phone numbers it wanted from 40 000 to 60 000. A number of these, however, could be fixed mobiles(desktop phones) or wireless DSL-speed internet access.
DSL lines in Latvia grew by 68 % (regulator's figures) despite there being no national broadband policy coming out of the Communications Department of the Ministry of Transport. No one really knows how much broadband is used in Latvia because many 2 Mb or higher connections are resold or redistributed in apartment buildings and by smaller, semi-fly-by-night ISPs. I am pretty sure that official figures (mainly Lattelekom's DSL services) will zip past 100 000 in the first half of 2005. It would be nice if they speeded up the basic service for existing customers from the present 256 kbps (say, to 512 kbps or 1 Mb, the DSLAMs serving HomeDSL reputedly are set to 2 Mbps and then slowed by software to 256 kbps). In Sweden (home to TeliaSonera), multimegabit speeds are standard - one of my sons has 8 megs (in a Stockholm suburb), the other 10 megs (in Umeå). There is some service pushing 26 megs on posters in the Stockholm subway (there was, at least, when I was there in November).
Look, too, for some kind of merged marketing by Lattelekom and LMT, as well as the launch of a few new consumer/business products by Lattelekom, such as video on demand or digital cable TV (probably toward the second half of 2005). Both need higher basic speeds.
Representatives of Telecommunications Consulting of India Ltd (TCIL), a contender for the "third" GSM and UMTS licence auction were supposed to be coming to Latvia in January. One wonders whether the tsunami disaster could have affected these plans, although TCIL is headquartered in Delhi, far from the seacoast. We may also see Denmark's TDC (through Bite GSM) clarify its position on the auction.
As I see it, TCIL is at least a known and experienced contender trying to break into a new market, while TDC needs a Latvian licence to complete its presence in all three Baltic states and be able to compete with TeliaSonera's subsidiaries in the mobile market. My guess is that these two could be serious bidders.
Meanwhile, I have received some feelers from still-mysterious International Telecommunications and Technologies (IT&T) to perhaps meet with their executives and be informed of who really stands behind this consortium (which shows up on no one's radar). It depends on whether my day job newspaper will agree to me going to either London or Beirut at IT&T's expense. A bit dodgy, but interesting. No one else is likely to get the story. I keep hearing that HuaWei, the Chinese telecoms infrastructure builder, is one of the technology partners behind IT&T, although there is no confirmation of this. HuaWei is also trying to break into the European market, they just did some kind of deal in the Netherlands.
It will be interesting to look at Triatel's figures for mobile CDMA-450 use in a couple of months. This will be a test of 3G services (fast data, mostly) takeup. If Triatel gets off the ground, it may inspire Latvian Mobile Telephone (LMT) and Tele2 to move beyond their own buildings in building out their UMTS networks. Triatel looked pretty optimistic when it upped the number of phone numbers it wanted from 40 000 to 60 000. A number of these, however, could be fixed mobiles(desktop phones) or wireless DSL-speed internet access.
DSL lines in Latvia grew by 68 % (regulator's figures) despite there being no national broadband policy coming out of the Communications Department of the Ministry of Transport. No one really knows how much broadband is used in Latvia because many 2 Mb or higher connections are resold or redistributed in apartment buildings and by smaller, semi-fly-by-night ISPs. I am pretty sure that official figures (mainly Lattelekom's DSL services) will zip past 100 000 in the first half of 2005. It would be nice if they speeded up the basic service for existing customers from the present 256 kbps (say, to 512 kbps or 1 Mb, the DSLAMs serving HomeDSL reputedly are set to 2 Mbps and then slowed by software to 256 kbps). In Sweden (home to TeliaSonera), multimegabit speeds are standard - one of my sons has 8 megs (in a Stockholm suburb), the other 10 megs (in Umeå). There is some service pushing 26 megs on posters in the Stockholm subway (there was, at least, when I was there in November).
Look, too, for some kind of merged marketing by Lattelekom and LMT, as well as the launch of a few new consumer/business products by Lattelekom, such as video on demand or digital cable TV (probably toward the second half of 2005). Both need higher basic speeds.
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