Tuesday, October 12, 2004

More on The Alliance

It has now emerged that the Latvian government's plans to create a second telecommunications infrastructure entity (it already owns 51 % of the incumbent fixed network operator Lattelekom) from four existing state companies and agencies has shifted into somewhat higher gear.
The Latvian office of the international audit and consulting group Deloitte & Touche has been asked by the State Information Network Agency (VITA in Latvian) to prepare a legal and economic study of various alternatives for merging the network resources of VITA, Latvenergo, Latvian Railways and the Latvian State Radio and Television Center into an entity with the working name Alianse (The Alliance).
In a study leaked to this blogger's day job newspaper Dienas bizness in September, VITA wrote that the new entity could have up to 350 000 users and turnover of LVL 23 million in its fifth year of operations.
According to sources, D&T will be looking at a range of possibilities for forming The Alliance, including a scheme where the network assets of all involved would be transferred to a new entity and, for example, Latvian Railways would buy back its necessary network services (dispatching, data transmission, switch monitoring, etc) from the new entity.
Other alternatives are creating a looser affiliation where The Alliance would trade in excess bandwidth (some say there is more of that than air...) as a kind of virtual wholesaler and provide some domestic carrier services to smaller voice and data operators outside of Riga. However, with the Public Utilities Regulation Commission proposing that Lattelekom's interconnect fees be cut by 50 % or more, this may prove unnecessary. In addition, Lattelekom can have surprises up its sleeve, such as divesting its network (as with Scanova in Sweden) and selling capacity to all comers, with service-provider Lattelekom (like Telia in Sweden) simply one of the biggest customers.
D&T is planning to report back with its findings in early November. These will then be put before the Ministry of Transport and, eventually, the Cabinet of Ministers (the Latvian government) for action. According to VITA, creating The Alliance would involve new investments of at least LVL 15 million, with more funds to be raised in some kind of public-private partnership.
An interesting signal that this government (or at least Minister of Transport and Deputy Prime Minister Ainars Šlesers) is taking the project (described in other circles as tending to crackpot... why compete with your own Lattelekom?) seriously is the apparent reassignment of Latvian Investment and Development Agency (LIDA) head Juris Kanels to be chairman of the board of VITA. According to some rumors, VITA director-general Rihards Balodis may also be changing jobs.
Kanels is seen as Šlesers' man who was brought in to do a job at the LIDA and will now oversee the building of The Alliance. It also confirms the rumor, made as a snide remark, that writing up The Alliance project gave some purpose to VITA, an otherwise strange agency in a small country where high grade secure communications can be bought on the market (as they are, for instance, by Latvia's mainly Swedish-owned commercial banks).
It remains to be seen if The Alliance actually gets off the ground, overcoming many possible hinderances (not the least the unwillingness of at least two of its members, Latvian Railways and Latvenergo-which is indivisible by law– to give up their fledgling commercial telecoms and data businesses). Alternatively, it could be a great boondoggle.

Digital TV boom and Sony Ericsson's return?

When a cable TV company apologizes to its customers for delays converting analog to digital cable connections and then places an ad hiring more technicians, it is probably a story. My paper sort of half skipped it (may run later this week), so here it is:

Baltkom TV, Latvia's largest cable network with more than 125 000 subscribers, is now revising upward its forecasts for uptake of its digital cable service on its optical network. Marketing direktor Juris Kezberis says that switchers by year-end will exceed the 5 000 households earlier forecast and probably pass 25 000 instead of 15 000 during 2005.

Baltkom made the initial forecasts when it recently announced it was starting to switch broadcasts on its MMDS network from analog to digital, claiming it was the first to start digital terrestrial broadcasting in Latvia. The state-sponsored project to start digital TV on "standard" frequencies (MMDS reception requires special equipment) has ground to a halt since last year, with everybody involved suing everybody else (to sum it up without a long digression).

So it appears that digital cable TV is generating major demand in Latvia. The initial offering is 49 channels, many of them uncoded Russian, German and English language programs. Latvia's Latvian Independent Television is planning to launch at least two digital channels exclusively on Baltkom and a deal is apparently being negotiated to carry LTV 1 and LTV 7, the public service channels on digital cable as well.

In mobile phone news, Sony-Ericsson is upgrading its sales activities in the Baltic by advertising in the Swedish for a regional manager to be based in Lithuania (according to my sources). This means that the handset dealer will have to make a steep uphill comeback from when it, as still Ericsson, essentially abandoned the Latvian market a few years ago. (Sony) Ericsson's market share in Latvia then plummeted to the low single digits (no exact figures, sorry), and it was quickly overtaken by Siemens and Samsung. Nokia, of course, remains at the top, a looming presence like a large bear in the wods.


Plans forge ahead for merging state networks

Sources tell us that plans are forging ahead for making an alternative backbone network to Lattelekom by merging the networks of four state owned companies and agencies. The idea was originally proposed in a paper drafted by the State Information Network Agency (Latvian acronym VITA), which proposed pooling the network resources of the energy utility Latvenergo, the Latvian Railways, and the Latvian State Radio and Television Center as well as VITA to create a competitor to fixed operator Lattelekom (owned 51 % by the state and 49 % by Sweden's TeliaSonera). The plan for creating something called The Alliance (Alianse) said it would have 350 000 users by the fifth year of operations and cost around LVL 15 million to set up. By the fifth year, The Alliance would have revenues of over LVL 20 million (by comparison, Lattelekom now has revenues in the LVL 135 million range).
The new state owned entity would be formed by each of the above mentioned companies and agencies divesting its network assets to a new company and then repurchasing services from The Alliance. In other words, Latvian Railways would divest its internal nationwide (along the rail lines) digital network and purchase back dispatcher, data transmission and other services from the Alliance. Latvenergo would do the same with its fiber optic network.
It is harder to see what would become of the State Radio and Television Center, since it now sells its TV transmission and domestic backbone network services to TV and radio broadcasters and mobile phone operators. If it divested these assets to The Alliance it would become a reseller of these services over the Alliance's network? Finally, VITA itself is more or less a purchasing entity for secure state voice and data services, it's network consists of leased commercial capacity for the most part. It would have few physical assets to bring to the new entity. Also, none of Latvenergo's assets can be separated or privatized. Without changing the Energy Law, it is impossible to divest Latvenergo's telecoms unit, especially not to a new company which could well have private owners and investors. The original report on the Alliance proposes partly funding it through an unspecified public-private partnership.
The practical plans for forging The Alliance are being made by a working group in the government. We hope to obtain the minutes of the meeting where this was discussed.

Monday, October 11, 2004

Small fry, bigger fish, grandes poissons?

Well, good morning, axe handle, as the Swedes would say. I just read about the spate of rumors last week that France Telecom was courting TeliaSonera. It pushed up the shares of both companies for a while, then came the denials.
TeliaSonera is one of the parents of Lattelekom (49 %) and consolidates a majority, by its reckoning, of Latvian Mobile Telephone (LMT). TeliaSonera's repeated appeals to buy the rest of both of these companies to form an integrated (at the network and services platform level, at least) regional operator have fallen on deaf government ears. In the public discussions of this idea, the spectre of "a supermonopoly" headquartered in Stockholm has been raised.
I always smiled at this. If Lattelekom and LMT (despite its hefty profits) are small fry, then TeliaSonera is only a mid-sized fish. Possible, and, within the next five or so years, even probable food for something much bigger. I am somewhat pleased by these rumors confirming that yes, there are grandes poissons out there in the Telecoms Ocean, or perhaps Grosse Fische.
I couldn't quite see the logic of France Telecom buying the company that just got cleared to buy its Danish Orange unit. One would think the French would prefer to expand in the direction of the Mediterranean and francophone North Africa. But one never knows.
Deutsche Telekom could be another remotely possible suitor for TeliaSonera, perhaps once it has taken all of the little Baltic fish under its fins. The Germans, I believe, lost in the original tender process to modernize Latvia's telecommunications in the early 1990s, so the interest has been there. After all, it would give a Nordic/Hanseatic regional branch to the German-based operator.
In any event, such rumor and speculation should be food for thought for those in the Latvian government who believe Lattelekom can remain a 51 % state-owned company indefinitely.

Thursday, October 07, 2004

Lattelekom announces WiFi roaming

As reported in this blog on September 22, Latvia's fixed network operator Lattelekom has now officially announced that it is offering international WiFi roaming. The company, owned 49 % by Sweden's TeliaSonera (the rest by the Latvian state) has signed a deal with Deutsche Telecom affiliate T-Systems (as reported here) as well as with operators in Portugal and Finland. Sweden, Great Britain, neighboring Estonia and other countries will come on line later, but before year-end. Initially, some 500 foreign WiFi sites will become accessible (at rates charged by the foreign host). T-Systems roaming charges will be LVL 0.0667 per minute.
Details on how the roaming enabled card will work are still sketchy – it will cost at least LVL 2.95 per month to "subscribe", but with no indication of the denominations of any pre-paid packages.
As I wrote earlier, it remains to be seen whether this deal will be attractive or will Latvian "road warriors" set off looking for freebie hotspots available in many countries (as part of the service at hotels or coffee shops).

Monday, October 04, 2004

Latvia's Triatel maxes out its number stock

Triatel, the Latvian CDMA-450 mobile operator set to launch commercial services in a few weeks, said it has maxed out the range of numbers it is allowed to used under its licence. The company doubled the number of numbers (that feels silly to write, but true) to 60 000 from 30 000. Triatel's marketing director Uldis Stüre said the decision to max out the the company's assigned numbers was an signal of confidence that it rapidly gain customers for its 3G services.
CDMA-450 is still not a commonly used standard in Europe, but proponents said at the recent Baltic Sea Communications Forum that the technology was gaining acceptance in places like the Czech Republic, Romania and Portugal (?).
In the Czech Republic, Eurotel's CDMA -450 was apparently perceived as a threat to parent company Cesky Telekom's wireline DSL business, leading to an acrimonious management reshuffle at the mobile operator.

Friday, October 01, 2004

Some foreign interest in Latvia's 3G/GSM auction?

A marketing research and consulting company, Ticon Latvia, is expected to report by the middle of October on the feasibility of holding an auction for Latvia's third GSM/UMTS licence. Latvia's prime minister Indulis Emsis has already jumped the gun on the report and said an auction will be held in 2005 in the interest of increasing competition in mobile services.
According to information provided to this blogger, the Latvian PM may have acted on preliminary information from the consultants, whose mandate was to interview "somewhat more than 10" Latvian and international companies. The researchers apparently got some favorable response.
It is said that French, German and Russian mobile operators have shown some interest. Orange and T-Mobile and Russia's NTS (so says one of the blogger's background sources) are mentioned as possible candidates.
More interesting speculation: the market survey report, either explicitly or through the data and operator viewpoints it compiles, may recommend splitting the third licence into an immediately effective third GSM licence and some kind of option or right or first refusal on UMTS. In other words, if XYZ Mobile buys Latvia's third licence, it can start GSM immediately, but also gets the exclusive right to activate its UMTS licence during a certain period, say two years, like the moratorium on new licences that came into effect after the abortive 2002 GSM/UMTS auction.
Ahead of what was widely termed a fiasco (the starting bid was set at LVL 7.6 million), Lithuania's Bite and Radiolinja showed some interest in the Latvian licence.
By some interpretations of the 2005 draft budget, Latvia hopes to get LVL 1.136 million in revenues from a UMTS licence. Nobody (not the Finance Ministry, not the Transport Ministry that oversees telecoms, nor the Public Utilities Regulatory Board, which would run the auction) seems to know where this figure came from.
Tele2's chief executive in Latvia Mats Tilly said his company would consider legal action if the terms of the third licence tender differed substantially from those Tele2 accepted when it bought a UMTS licence for LVL 5.8 million in 2002. Tilly was apparently upset by the assumption that the new operator would pay five times less. Latvian Mobile Telephone's (LMT) president Juris Binde is more philosophical, remarking that the price of things changes. Meanwhile, the odd man out, CDMA-450 operator Triatel is poised to launch 3G services in a limited part of the country by the end of October. So the third licence will actually be for a fourth operator.
Janis Lelis, the managing director of the Latvian Telecommunications Association believes that there is a potential untapped customer base of around 300 000 mobile users on top of the 1.2 million already using mobiles (the total population of Latvia is about 2.4 million). Even if three GSM operators split the newcomers evenly, Lelis thinks an operator with 100 000 customers would be viable, especially if the regulatory authorities enforce favorable interconnects and so-called domestic roaming (the newcomer can use incumbent networks until it builds its own).
Perhaps the hybrid GSM licence/UMTS option or first-refusal will prove to be the most viable when Ticon Latvia makes its expected report.

Wednesday, September 29, 2004

Private TV in Latvia to launch digital channels

Latvian Independent television (LNT) says it will launch two new digital television channels, one for Latvian music, the other for news, to be broadcast exclusively over cable operator Baltkom TV's digital network. TV5, a free to air broadcast channel said to be affiliated with LNT will also be carried by Baltkom, which distributes its digital signal by optical cable and MMDS in a 50 kilometer radius around the main television broadcast tower in Riga. TV5, which carries local talk programs and reality shows, is also planning to launch a digital 24 hour reality show channel.
LNT, founded in the mid 1990s as a private company, is presently a terrestrial broadcast channel offering entertainment, news and some reality shows in a mixture of locally produced and dubbed foreign programming.
Baltkom TV says it is the first digital terrestrial TV broadcaster in Latvia, a claim which is technically true considering that the signal broadcast over the MMDS network is encoded by the DVB-T standard. However, reception of the MMDS broadcast requires specialized antennas and decoders, while DVB-T as broadcast in other countries can be received with conventional TV antennas and a decoder.
For Baltkom, the start of digital broadcasting, however one defines it, was also the launch of its "triple play" strategy offering a package of digital cable, voice and internet at different prices and configurations. Next year, Baltkom says it will offer video on demand, pay per view, and a greater variety of channel packages for various prices and tastes.
Baltkom claims that its optical cable footprint reaches around 180 000 households in metropolitan Riga, while the MMDS signal reaches up to 360 000 households or more than 1 million potential individual viewers.
Currently, around 2 000 households subscribe to the 49 channel digital service, a number expected to rise to 5 000 by the end of the year and 15 000 next year, or a little more than 10 % of the 120 000 customers Baltkom now has across Latvia. The service costs LVL 10.50 per month, a sum Baltkom director general Peteris Smidre says is less than is charged for comparable services in other countries. Latvia, however, has significantly lower purchasing power than Sweden, where cable and digital cable cost upward of SEK 300 or LVL 20 per month.
LNT didn't give details of its planned news channel, but sources told this blogger much content will be provided by the Latvian news agency LETA. Even though LETA has been technologically innovative (it uses the web extensively), moving into what amounts to a joint venture in TV (especially with a hitherto very small audience) is a major risk for the wire service. Unlike rival Baltic News Service (BNS), LETA does not operate regionally as an alliance of five language services (Latvian, Lithuanian, Estonian, English and Russian) as does BNS.
The news channel will tilt heavily toward business news, LNT director-general Andrejs Ekis hinted at a September 29 press conference. This could heat up competition with print media, such as the Latvian-language Dienas bizness (where this blogger works) as well as Russian-language business publications (most younger business decision makers are tri-lingual in Latvian, Russian and English).
And so this blog has drifted from telecoms into electronic media.
After all, why not?

Tuesday, September 28, 2004

Latvian PM jumps the gun on 3G licence auction

Latvian Prime Minister Indulis Emsis said there will be an auction for a licence for Latvia's third GSM/UMTS licence, which will clear the way for entry by a defacto fourth mobile operator. Emsis said the auction was needed to spur competition and lower telecommunications costs to the consumer and that revenues from the sale were of secondary importance.
Emsis made the announcement several days ahead of the planned report by a consulting firm commissioned to study the practicanility of holding a license auction once the moratorium set after a failed 2002 auction ends this fall.
He was commenting on an item in the 2005 draft budget that forecast income of LVL 1.136 million from a UMTS licence.
Strangely, none of the government agencies connected with telecommunications could give a clear explanation as to what this item meant. Raimonds Bergmanis, head of the Communications Department of the Ministry of Transport said it looked like the deferred payments being made by both incumbents for their 2002 UMTS licences.
An advisor to Transport Minister Ainars Slesers said no such amount had been included by the Ministry, and the Ministry of Finance said the source of the figures was the Public Utilities Regulation Commission.
However, Mats Tilly, director of Swedish owned Tele2, Latvia's second incumbent mobile operator which, like Latvian Mobile Telephone (LMT), paid LVL 5.8 million for its UMTS licence, said his company would consider legal action if the conditions of the new licence were substantially different from those imposed on the incumbents, both in terms of payment and execution.
Under their licences, LMT and Tele2 must start commercial UMTS operations by the end of this year, but none have done any marketing, unlike CDMA 450 operator Triatel, which paid around LVL 200 for its telecommunucations operator licences and which has been advertising its coming 3G services in the press. The company expects to start offering voice (with interconnects to LMT, Tele2, Lattelekom's and other networks) and high speed data services (initially around 153kbps, but possibly 1 Mb quite soon) by the end of October.
The 2002 GSM/UMTS licence auction was a failure, even though Radiolinja (Finland/Estonia) and Lithuania's Bite showed some initial interest in the Latvian licence. Analysts here say the real value in the licence, if any, is a shot at the GSM market, which, even with 1.2 million users on both networks, is not seen as saturated. Latvia's population is 2.4 million.

Monday, September 27, 2004

Chickens in the budget, eggs to be laid :) ??

My kind colleague Madara, who covers the government, pointed out a line in next year's budget showing planned income of LVL 1.136 million from a UMTS licence. Looks like the elusive # 3 UMTS licence that the government last tried to sell in 2002, at the same time, it is rumored, pressuring Latvian Mobile Telephone and Tele2 to buy their UMTS licences for LVL 5.8 million apiece.
I have already pointed out that the "sneak attack" by CDMA-450 operator Triatel has probably killed any chance of holding another auction for the UMTS licence once the moratorium runs out in a few weeks. The government is optimistic. I 'm gonna ask some folks about this tommorrow. Love them dreamers at the Communications Department of the Ministry of Transport.

Flippers, masks and cybersquatters

There's going to be a slightly weird press conference in Riga on Tuesday by a Russian-owned distributor of diving equipment which apparently had its name cybersquatted by a Latvian company in the same business. Trouble is, the court case, based on trademark infringement, was decided almost a year ago, evicting the Latvian company from the www.aquatex.lv domain address.
It appears this is the first cybersquatting case in Latvia, but the reason for the one-year delay is that a) no one noticed it at the time, including this blogger and b) it gives an interesting twist to a presentation that otherwise would be all about aqualungs, flippers and spear fishing. Not exactly what the business/IT press jumps on. It is, apparently, one of the first visits to Latvia by Aquatex Group president Oleg Chebikin, whose company name, he says, was cybersquatted in 2002 by rival Juras vejs (Sea Breeze) in Latvia, another diving equipment and instruction company.
Under Latvian law, at least as Aquatex's lawyer explains it, domain registration creates no property rights, but registering a company and a trademark does. Apparently both irritated and inspired by the appearence his company's cybersquatted domain name, Mr. Chebikin decided to start a Latvian subsidiary, register a trademark and sue the SOBs. He won. Last year...


A nice read from A Week in Wireless

Sometimes I get stuff from other sources that is just fun to read. Hope to be as entertaining myself when the opportunity arises:

A Week in Wireless 154
24th September 2004

Is it just the Informer or has Nokia started to resemble Gollum, from the Lord of the Rings movies?

“Ringtoneses? Nooooo, preciousssss. we doesn’t want to do ringtoneses. Massssster Carrier does ringtoneses, Nokia loves kind Masssssster Carrier.”

Having joined the GSMA and bent to the will of the operators in terms of handsets, Nokia has now taken a step towards dismantling its Club Nokia effort by exiting the ringtones business. Of course the decision is partly motivated by the fact that its ringtones business wasn’t making much money but Nokia’s suggestion that it only started offering them in the first place as a way of showcasing the capabilities of its hardware seems a trifle rich.

(some stuff snipped)

On the subject of children, the BBC ran a wonderful story this week about some comments made by one David Butler, head of the UK’s National Confederation of Parent Teacher Associations. Mr Butler claimed recently that radio waves from mobile phones are good for children because they heat up their heads, allowing them to think more clearly. He said: “That heating effect actually improves the neuron transfers between neural pathways, and therefore your thinking ability goes up.”

Time for your medication, Mr Butler.

_____

TV on possible alternative telecom alliance

Latvian independent television (LNT) had a report on its weekly magazine Nedeļa (The Week) which discussed plans to form an alliance of all state-owned telecommunications and data transmission networks. This blogger reported the same in Dienas bizness (before he was blogging) on September 1.
Basically, the idea involves forming a loose alliance of the energy utility Latvenergo, the Latvian Railway, the Latvian State Radio and Television Center (LVRTC), and the State Information Network Agency (VITA) to create a data and voice network that would have around 350 000 users by the fifth year of operations and generate around LVL 23 million in revenues. Currently Lattelekom has somewhat more than 600 000 line subscribers, while the mobile networks have 1.2 million users.
Putting the networks together would require investments of around LVL 15 million from the partners and an unspecified amount of public/private partnership funds.
The whole idea for the alternative network, to be called "Alianse" (The Alliance) is set forth in a 100 page document prepared by VITA.
In the LNT show, an official of the Ministry of Transport said that he wanted the plans for implementing the Alliance to be 60 -70 % ready by early 2005. That was a clears signal that the Ministry is still interested in setting up a carrier level alternative to Lattelekom (the idea first appeared in the draft concept for telecommunications earlier this year and was dismissed (in informal talks) as "crackpot" by some of the intended participants.
If the Ministry of Transport is really serious about the project, it will have to start soon to push for the necessary changes in the Law on Energy (to allow seperating the telecommunications unit of the presently indivisible Latvenergo), as well as to make a for-profit state corporation of the hitherto non-profit LVTRC, as well as to change VITA from an agency to a state company (something already being done). It will also have to work hard to convince Latvenergo and Latvian Railways to abandon their present, somewhat competing data transmission services marketing activities, as well as to justify why the government would invest LVL 15 million in competing with Lattelekom, which is 51 % state owned.
One reason could be that regardless of majority state ownership, Lattelekom is seen as somehow not acting in the state's interests. But if Prime Minister Indulis Emsis succeeds in gaining "control" (whatever he means by that) over Lattelekom, then that problem would be solved and there would, perhaps, be no need to invest in yet another carrier network to compete with Lattelekom.
Besides, no one knows what technology will bring in five years, even if The Alliance kicks off in 2005.

Saturday, September 25, 2004

Tele2, the next Song please?

The board of directors of Song Networks, the Nordic broadband services network with a link to Tallinn, has recommended accepting a higher cash bid for its shares from Tele2, which has been bidding against Denmark's TDC to take over the company.
If that happens, will Tele2 in the Baltics also consider jumping into the already hot corporate date services market, where Lattelekom, Latvenergo, Latvian Railways, and Baltcom Fiber (owned by a Latvian telecoms and cable TV entrepreneur and a Dutch investor) are active to a greater or lesser extent? I don't know what Linx is up to, but they also have ambitions (and, I believe, fiber) in the region.
An interesting thought. We shall see what happens. However, these musings are sobered by remarks recently heard by this blogger from Latvenergo and Lattelekom that the haven't been building up much of a corporate network client base quite yet. One reason is - there simply aren't that many regional large companies to begin with, and most of the multinationals are hooked up with the global operators.

Friday, September 24, 2004

Whispers about WISPs

One of the advantages of a blog with around seven readers :) is that you can stretch the rules of journalistic confidentiality a little and report stuff that is not quite ready to be reported.
So here is a little look into the near and mid-term future:

A big WISP (that's wireless internet service provider) and, as a matter of fact, the only multi-site WISP in Latvia, may be reshuffling its equipment and software suppliers. A small (in relation to Cisco) local company will be contributing to the Big Guy's WiFi solution, since Big Guy's own routing arrangements aren't working as well as they might.
Meanwhile, a hotel chain (two links is enougjh :)) has Big Guy at one of its Riga places, but the WiFi at its other site is being set up by the small local company.
Finally, look for some others to attempt to offer local WiFi roaming, maybe among academic institutions to start with. Now that Lattelekom (see Dienas bizness on Monday, September 27) has confirmed it will offer international roaming, the idea of domestic roaming becomes interesting. If you have a substantial domestic network, you can attract foreigners in competition with Lattelekom, This blogger has been told that setting up a server and the necessary software to authorize users of the shared hotspot network is neither very expensive nor "rocket science." Let's see who makes some kind of moves in coming months.
Another possibility – why go WiFi when bigger footprint technologies are available now, ahead of the real-life debut of WiMax. Or maybe with WiMax?

Thursday, September 23, 2004

"GMISPs" in Latvia and other remarks

No one really knows how many broadband connections there are in Latvia. Lattelekom's internet service provider (ISP) Apollo estimates there will be 40 000 DSL subsribers by year end, perhaps 100 000 in a few years. However, Ingmars Pūķis, the director of Apollo, told my newspaper that no one really knows, since some high speed connections (DSL at 2Mbps) can be divided and resold to other users that Apollo is unaware of. TeliaMultiCom has a couple of thousand cable internet users, and there are a growing number of "triple play" customers at Baltcom, who subscribe to cable TV, cable internet and telephony services. But even a fat cable internet subscription or a corporate grade "radiolink" to Telia Latvija (no longer connected to MultiCom in any way) can be resold. Since the resellers sometimes operate "informally", call them Grey Market ISPs (hence the acronym in the title -GMISPs)
One of my colleagues, call her Inguna, might be a typical "unaccounted for" broadband user. She and her partner share a connection (two PCs, an extra charge for the second computer) for about LVL 16 a month, which is about what HomeDSL from Lattelekom/Apollo costs. She says their neighbor, who has DSL, says their connection is faster. There is limited customer service, but there have also been only a few breakdowns. It seems that only a few people set up and run what may be a GMISP in a Riga suburb. If this is typical, there can be hundreds of GMISPs in Riga alone.
While this may mean less revenue (directly) for the "majors" -- Lattelekom and TeliaMultiCom– it also means that the potential broadband content audience is bigger than any official figures.
Watch for Lattelekom to make some strong strategic moves into content in the coming six months. Also consider that the company may start migrating all of its voice, eventually all services, to a next-generation IP network. This is what British Telecom is doing and Lattelekom MD Nils Melngailis is an admirer of BT's strategy.

State Audit rejects Lattelekom's appeal

The State Audit office rejected Lattelekom's appeal of its decision to audit aspects of the 51 % state owned company on the grounds that the appeal concerned an action of the State Audit board that was not subject to appeal.
In other words, while the decisions or conclusions of auditors are appealable, the decision by the board to do an audit and to assign it to a particular unit of the State Audit Office is not subject to review by the board itself under Latvian law.
The State Audit office also said that Lattelekom had not raised any objections to the substance of the audit findings (which have not been officially disclosed). Instead, Lattelekom challenged the standing of the State Audit to subject the company to an audit and to select a particular auditing subunit that audits privatization. Since that was a decision of the State Audit board (or council, however you translate "padome" in haste), it was not subject to appeal.
So there we are, more or less where this blog predicted things would be.
The actual auditors' report cannot be published until the next appellate procedure, going to the court known as the Senats (Senate) is exhausted. Lattelekom has 30 days to appeal and has not made any comment so far.
The legitimate question of how far a state audit can go in overseeing and, indirectly, approving or disapproving of business decisions in a specialized commercial enterprise remains unresolved. As I wrote before, Lattelekom's international auditors have found no fault with the company applying international audit standards. The State Audit, using different criteria, seems to be poking around in operational business decisions, examining the "utility" of some of them.
Will try to see if State Auditor Raits Chernajs remarks to Radio SWH are on the web, I was tipped off he may say something about the substance of the still confidential audit report.

Wednesday, September 22, 2004

Lattelekom likely to lose State Audit appeal

The Latvian State Auditor looks poised to reject an appeal by Lattelekom of an apparently critical audit performed earlier this year. Some parts of the audit were leaked to a Latvian daily newspaper, Neatkariga Rita Avize, which made claims that former Lattelekom managing director Leena Suhonen and other managers had wasted funds and acted in favor of one owner, TeliaSonera, rather than the interests of the company. Lattelekom is owned 49 % by TeliaSonera and 51 % by the Latvian state.
Lattelekom has been audited by international auditors who gave the company a clean audit.
Lattelekom did not comment on these claims, nor did it disclose the content of the state audit, but appealed it earlier in the summer. The appeal was apparently based mainly on objections to the "jurisdiction" of the State Auditor, since Lattelekom says it is a commercial enterprise and not a ministry, agency or other entity spending public budget funds.
The State Auditor, sitting in an internal appeals proceeding, is expected to rule against Lattelekom in a ruling to be announced on Thursday, September 23. The Auditor will argue that Lattelekom comes under its mandate and that the company can be audited according to the principles applicable to government entity audits.
According to information availabe to this blogger, Lattelekom did not challenge any of the assertions in the audit report itself, assuming, instead, that they should be dismissed as invalid because the State Auditor had no mandate to make them.
The conflict illustrates one reason why Lattelekom might be better off as a 100 % private corporation, or at least with substantially less state ownership, so that it will not be audited by apparently conflicting methods and standards.

Lattelekom working on WiFi roaming

Lattelekom managing director Nils Melngailis remarks about WiFi roaming at Heathrow Airport reported earlier in this blog are part of an overall roaming strategy the company will be unveiling in coming weeks.
Starting on October 1, Lattelekom will offer WiFi roaming in Germany, Finland and Portugal, and starting in November in Sweden, the Czech Republic, Spain, France and Lichtenstein. More European countries will be added in December, including Great Britain (hence Heathrow).
Lattelekom will be launching a new product for the roaming market, most likely a prepaid card of the kind already sold in Latvia and giving access to some 70 + domestic sites with the Lattelekom WiFi logo, including Statoil filling stations. (Just the place to open your laptop and surf while you fill your tank, radio waves, sparks? I never quite got that one :) ).
T-Systems, the Deutsche Telekom subsidiary is the only roaming partner that has been named, but a not-so-wild guess is that TeliaSonera with their "Go" program, and British Telecom (BT) may be involved.
Selling pre-paid roaming cards is generally a good idea for the customer, says Mikrotikls director John Tully, who deals with WiFi providers and WISPs around the world. But he also pointed out that there are two competing business models: the paid service and the amenity/magnet. The latter means that you install free WiFi at your coffee shop, restaurant, hotel, airport waiting room, etc. in order to draw more customers. Free WiFi is more of a trend in the US, especially after the FCC ruled that you cannot restrict the building of WiFi sites (so your coffee shop can offer free access in the same airport where T-Mobile might be charging 9.99 an hour/pick your currency as long as it is not any of the Scandinavian krona).
The advantage of prepaid is that you have a known network awaiting you when you travel and you don't have to search the web for free WiFi sites that may or may not be updated (i.e. webmaster "Zeke" was having second year university exams and didn't update the site for two weeks). The disadavantage is going to Milwaukee (if Lattelekom ever roams there) and seeing your business rival surfing for free at the local coffee joint while you burn lats... But yet another advantage is that there may be some QoS guarantees with reliable partners. We shall see.
It looks like this story is going to be buried in a certain medium that I am familiar with :), so I am publishing this so-far exclusive information here. You saw it first on this site :)!

Latvia's Mikrotiks challenges WiMax

Mikrotiks (Mikrotikls on the Latvian market), has developed a new high-speed point to multi-point data transmission standard called N-STREME that it believes can achieve the same throughput as WiMax on existing Atheros radio equipment.
John Tully, a director and co-owner of the Riga based company told this blogger that wireless internet equipment using N-STREME could achieve speeds of up to 45 Mbps over a radius of several tens of kilometers, thereby beating WiMax to market. Some test versions of the high speed protocol are in use in Bulgaria and Hungary. Mikrotiks provides WiFi and wireless internet equipment to several hundred small and medium sized WISPs around the world in Africa, Asia, Central America, the US and Latvia. N-STREME is being offered as a free upgrade to existing customers and its final version, due shortly, will be packaged with Mikrotiks systems that include routerboards (made in Ogre, Latvia), radio chipsets and switching software.