What may happen in 2009

Any of my Latvian-speaking readers may recognize this as a slight re-hash of what I wrote on my Latvian-language blog. However, having woken up at an early jet-lagged (or jet-pushed, as I am "ahead" and waking at 0530 after going to bed around 2230) hour here in the US, I will share some thoughts on what may be ahead in Latvian telecoms in 2009.

The government (or whatever government is in charge) will continue to endlessly drag its feet on the privatization of Lattelecom and mobile operator LMT. With the financial markets globally in a shambles and share prices down to rock-bottom, it is unlikely that anyone will pay or get a good price for either Latvian operator. The offer made by TeliaSonera to pay over 500 million LVL for the remaining state stakes in both companies would have been the deal of the decade. The Latvian government simply blew it. On this issue, there is no direction home (as Bob Dylan put it).

Lattelecom, meanwhile, will be very busy. It has to start its DSL to FTTH conversion (offering 100 Mbps to internet subscribers, instead of the present 10 Mbps) that will replace copper with fiber over the next three years for most Lattelecom internet users. The other project it will have to start immediately is setting up a digital terrestrial television network across the country. It won a tender for this project to convert the national television broadcast system to digital by 2011(?). The company has experience putting together a program package for its IP television service (which does not have a spectacular number of users, though it is growing), but terrestrial broadcast could be something new for it.

Meanwhile, cable operator IZZI will be boosting its internet services network to deliver 100 Mbps as well. What will Baltcom do?

The mobile operators, after a winter of advertising how easy it is to have "heartfelt conversations" with you darling kitten or beary-poo (the latest marketing campaigns by Bite and LMT have this kind of stuff), may get back to some real competition. One area for re-slicing the market could be government and local government, where Tele2 has been repeatedly claiming it can cut phone costs for such organizations by up to 30%. Now that we are starting a year (0r several) of santims-pinching, it may be worth a try to check out whether Tele2 can come up with the goods.

Triatel, the CDMA and EVDO wireless internet operator, will still be looking for a buyer (this has been a low-key story for some months) but will face the same market conditions as everyone. Not a good idea to sell itself on the cheap. Oh, and I think the CDMA voice business is no big deal, it is the rural wireless internet coverage that may make this company attractive.

On wireless/mobile internet, look for everyone in the Latvian mobile space to jump to 14.4 Mbps by the end of the year, perhaps to the HSDPA on steroids of 21 Mbps (Tele2 is doing it in Sweden).  2010 or 2011 may see some attempts at LTE on the Latvian market, or what will be left after the economic ravages many people are expecting.

At last, the light is sweating (Latvian- gaismiņa svīst) here in Newton, MA, so I may get back to this topic later.  Now  a shower and some breakfast. 

Happy Holidays to all

I want to wish Happy Holidays (be it Christmas, Hannukah, Kwanza or Winter Solstice) to all my readers. I will be in the US from December 26 to January 11. To the extent possible, I will post anything of interest on this blog.

Swedish touchscreen phone bites the dust

Neonode, a Swedish designer of touchscreen phones (they were built in Asia, of course) has gone bankrupt. Just over a year ago, I was in Sweden and did a videoblog post about them. Too bad, it looked like a good idea, especially coming ahead of the wave of touchscreens that were launched by major manufacturers, such as Samsung and LG and, of late, even Nokia. It came just a few months after the first version of the iPhone. But lacking the market weight of either Apple or the Koreans and, given the finance markets crisis, Nenode went under. A good try...

Blackberry Bold comes to Latvia

The Bite Group has introduced the Blackberry Bold to Latvia and Lithuania. The Riga presentation was held at a wine bar/wine shop, which explains the background in the video. Somewhat surprising was the candid admission by Bite honcho Fred Hrenchuk that there were only 700 Blackberry service users on the Bite network in Latvia. Perhaps this is because there are now a number of mobile e-mail platforms and services available -- various Nokia phones, the iPhone and other smart phones. The Blackberry has to compete with these, unlike North America, where Crackberry addiction spread like wildfire under different pre-conditions. However, I met one businessman who already had a Bold (from the US side of his business) and would gladly buy another 10 (for his Latvian staff?) if Bite could meet a few specific conditions. So there is potential for growth.

Moving back on topic

OK, enough ranting about what is happening in this little bananaless republic. I will stick to telecoms related topics and direct everyone who is interested in the ongoing free speech controversy in Latvia to this new blog of mine, Free Speech Emergency in Latvia. So please go there. Free speech is the reason we are able to write about anything we want to (but not anymore in Latvia). I will continue to write what I think about IT and telecoms here, and what I think of the f**kwits running the Security Police on that new blog.

Latvia threatens to prosecute Security Police critics

The Latvian Security Police, according to a newspaper report, have threatened to prosecute anyone publicly commenting that the Security Police, who arrested a university lecturer for remarks about the financial crisis, are moving the country toward totalitarianism and repressing freedom of speech.

According to the newspaper Diena's portal, the Security Police "do not exclude starting criminal proceedings" against anyone commenting on the internet and expressing agreement with the views of the detained (since released and put under a travel ban) lecturer Dmitrijs Smirnovs or asserting that the Latvian Security Police were returning the country to totalitarianism by repressing freedom of speech. 

Sorry about yet another off-topic, but I think we are heading for a free speech emergency in Latvia. 

Latvia detains, restricts travel of academic for economy comments

Another offtopic about the outrageous behavior of this little authoritarian no-banana republic:

The Latvian Security Police (Drošibas policija) detained for two days and then banned a college lecturer from leaving the country for remarks about the economy in a panel discussion that were later published in a newspaper.
Dmitrijs Smirnovs, a lecturer in accounting and finance at Ventspils University College has been ordered not to leave the country after his release from two days of interrogation by the Security Police about his remarks that Latvians should not keep their money in banks and in Latvian lats.
Smirnovs argued that excessive credit, mainly by Swedish-owned banks, had created a precarious situation and also blamed the Bank of Latvia, the nation's central bank, for failing to regulate and restrict excessive and imprudent lending.
Also questioned by the Security Police was Valters Fridenbergs, a young musician, who joked about withdrawing money from two Latvian banks during a break in a concert.

After these events, it is fair to say that the functions of the former Soviet and Soviet Latvian KGB -- the persecution and intimidation of dissent and free speech -- are being revived by the Latvian Security Police. Latvia has taken a significant step toward becoming an authoritarian state.

Migrating to GMail, screw Yahoo!

Yahoo! mail for me is in some kind of systemic failure, inaccessible due to errors 999 or 5 or 14 or whatever now for nearly a week. This is regardless of where I have been accessing it from: a Verizon DSL connection in Newton, MA or a Comcast cable internet connection in Wayland, MA in the US, a Lattelecom DSL connection in Riga, and now, an ultrafast corporate Lattelecom (?) connection at my workplace. Yahoo (which reminded me, recently, to pay USD 19.95 for its premium service) sucks totally and I have started a rather cumbersome, but necessary migration to Gmail. Perhaps I should also open a back-up Hotmail account. Those with a need-to-know will be informed of my new (old, actually, just haven't used Gmail that much) address. It is juriskaza(thingy)gmail(Dot)com (so f**k you e-mail scanning spam bots).

Yahoo! degrades to garbage level service

If I had not been in the US, then back in Latvia experiencing the same problems, I wouldn't write this so harshly. My primary e-mail for general purpose communications, Yahoo!, has been regularly down for a variety of error codes, 5, 15, and of late, 999.
In the US, I attempted to access my e-mail through Verizon DSL (at my mother's house), then through Comcast at my brother's house and now through Lattelecom DSL in Riga. Yet again, I see code 999. Complaining repeatedly to Yahoo doesn't help. I use a brand new aluminum Macbook, and Macs have little or no malware or viruses. Also, to register a complain requires one to decipher extremely twisted and obscure combinations of letters and numerals, designed not so much as to deter automated use of the site as to simply prevent ordinary users from bothering them.
I am just curious whether anyone else is experiencing this, what appears to, global deterioration of Yahoo service. I have been paying some USD 19.95 annual fee for a higher level of service. I also wonder if anyone has a migration strategy for moving all of one's Yahoo contacts and automatically forwarding Yahoo mail to a site that isn't f**ked half the time, like Gmail.

Some sad personal news

I have been busy at my day job and hoped to put in some more video from IBM Information on Demand, but I have sadly received word that my father, 91, passed away after a longer illness November 6 in a nursing home near Boston. I got to see him shortly before IOD, stopping for a few days in the Boston area. So I am heading over again for the funeral and will be back on station after November 17.

Steve Mills (IBM) on cloud computing, recession

Steve Mills, Senior VP of the IBM Software Group, talked about cloud computing for SMEs and the effects of the recession on the IT industry and its customers during a roundtable discussion at Information on Demand 2008. Here are my video excerpts.

The IOD 2008 opening show

IBM put on a rather impressive opening show at Information on Demand 2008 in Las Vegas (Vegas, after all). I shot some video of it -- the psychedelic performance and a nice sexy singer with a very libertarian song (my politics, sort of :) ).

I'm heading back to Riga today via Chicago and Frankfurt, a day on planes. There will be more to post -- video mainly-- from the conference when I get back.

IBM honchos speak at IOD 2008

I have put together some video highlights of  the first day of IBM's Information on Demand 2008 conference. where the emphasis is on information processing and analysis as a tool for improving business outcomes.

At IBM Information on Demand

I am at IBM Information on Demand in Las Vegas. Not much time to blog, but it looks like we will here something about industry specific solutions (not just middleware to keep the data accurate and deliver it, generically, where it is wanted. They should also touch on cloud computing and delivery platforms

I have shot some video and will post it in the next couple of days (I head back to Latvia on October 29). Great stuff with Jeff Jonas, a genius on stitching unrelated data,  also some Steve Mills (head honcho of IBM's Software Division). Hope to edit it and get it out on my Latvian blog and here.

Alcatel Lucent offers green telecoms in the Baltics

Alcatel Lucent's business development manager for Nordic & Baltics, Johan Ragmo, was in Riga recently and talked about the company's energy-saving or so-called greener telecommunications solutions. These are based on, among other technologies, smart systems that draw down their electricity consumption when idle, and devices that combine several functions previously handled by different boxes into a one-box solution.
All of this sounds fine, since if thousands of companies in a country like Latvia were to cut their energy demand (and save on costs in the bargain), it would proportionately reduce the generation of ungreen energy (Latvia has lots of hydropower supplemented by some combined cycle coal and gas fueled power stations). However, the issue of the environmental impact of manufacturing processes and materials used in telco equipment remains. Why reduce energy consumption 50 % for the user if making the gadget leaves a Godzilla-sized carbon footprint. To this Johan said, off camera, that Alcatel Lucent manufactures in accordance with good industry practices. His main message was about the energy savings for business and organizational users.

Epson opens Baltic regional office, honcho speaks

Epson, the Japanese maker of imaging and printing equipment (as well as projectors) has opened a regional office in the Baltic States, citing rapid market growth and potential in the region. I talked to Eiji Ide, CEO of Epson Europe about the reasons for setting up a regional office and the printer market in general. Toward the end of the interview, Ide reveals a secret about his necktie :).
The video has titles both in Latvian and English, as it is edited for dual use here and on my Latvian language blog.

Is there a future for fixed telecoms in Latvia?

Janiene Bayliss, an independent consultant specializing in telecommunications branding, was one of the speakers at Lattelecom's annual customer conference. I asked her to comment on the assertion that fixed networks may be a sunset industry, since most of the population of any Western European country (and Latvia) seems to primarily use mobile phones for voice and, increasingly, for data communications.
Also at the conference, Lattelecom CEO Juris Gulbis said that the company planned to start replacing its DSL internet service (max. 10 Mbps) with high speed (up to 100 Mbps) fiber to the home connections over the next three years. One reason for the upgrade was to make it possible to provide HD television broadcasts as part of Lattelecom's internet television offering. Gulbis said that at present, Latvia had the fourth fastest consumer internet services in the world, behind Japan, Sweden and the Netherlands.

Alcatel-Lucent's Baltic focus is on fixed networks

Before going to the US on September 19, I had an opportunity to interview Lars Boilesen, the head of Alcatel-Lucent Nordic & Baltics. Boilesen believes that the company's focus in the region will continue to be fixed network operators, even as Alcatel-Lucent has strong positions in the mobile market elsewhere. In Latvia, the focus on fixed networks goes back to a long-term relationship with Lattelecom.

Off to the States, and screw KLM!!

I am off to the US for 10 days again, so will be blogging here even more sporadically, although I do have a video interview with an Alcatel-Lucent honcho that I will try to get up.

I am writing this when I should actually already be well on my way to the US, with the ever-so convenient (though a bit extreme) 0555 AM Riga to Amsterdam to Boston connection with f**king KLM. The reason I am not is that KLM simply cancelled the flight and rebooked me and my wife on what appeared to be separate flights to Copenhagen and Stockholm respectively (OK, we don't have the same last name and used different credit cards for her business purposes). Since we booked via Expedia (who brings no small amount of business to KLM) and we saw  no visible onward connections to the US  from Scandinavia on the new information (we found them, via Newark, by investigating ourselves) KLM said it was our and Expedia's problem, not theirs. The flight cancellation was at KLM's initiative, it caused us serious concern and problems, yet KLM stubbornly and repeated (except for one person on the US reservations line, which I called via Skype and who got us reservations on Lufthansa, but not tickets) refused to resolve our problem and said it was up to Expedia, who were also pretty hopeless and helpless at it. So finally a lady at Lufthansa in Riga solved it, and we are flying over with them. I will repeat what I wrote in my Latvian language blog -- KLM are swine. Swine! Passanger hostile swine!

Swedish online video editing company looks East

Jaycut, a Swedish online video editing company, thinks Eastern Europe is an interesting potential market for its services. So far, the Stockholm-based company, founded in 2007, has a major customer in IKEA, the Swedish/global do-it-yourself furniture and home furnishings company. It has set up a website for customers to show off their home decoration solutions using IKEA's stuff, upload any raw video and edit it down to a presentable video spot.
While in Stockholm recently, I talked to Jonas Hombert, co-founder of Jaycut: